By Todd Welch / Herald Columnist
Snohomish County’s budget problem isn’t a morality play; it’s a math problem.
County leaders went into August expecting a manageable gap and instead found a deeper hole; potentially $20 million rather than $5 million, driven by softer-than-forecast sales-tax receipts and faster-than-planned spending in several departments. Recent reporting details the budget picture (“Snohomish County grapples with worse-than-expected budget woes,” The Herald, Aug. 14), while follow-up coverage explains how several departments are overspending (“Snohomish County departments explain why they’re overspending,” The Herald, Aug. 22).
Let’s start with revenue. The county built its 2025–26 budget plan on the assumption that retail sales tax would grow around the long-run average. It hasn’t. Trends this year are closer to about 2 percent, not the approximately 5 percent that was penciled in, which alone blows a several-million-dollar hole in the forecast. You don’t need an MBA to see where that story ends if spending keeps racing ahead of income.
Now look at the expense side. The biggest line item is people, wages and benefits, and there’s been meaningful upward pressure. Recent county labor agreements set across-the-board cost-of-living bumps of 4.51 percent for 2024 and another 3.63 percent for 2025 for some units, with additional Consumer Price Index-linked increases after that. That’s real money, and they compound each step is a new base.
Are those raises inherently wrong? No. We should pay public servants fairly and competitively. But raises have to be matched to the revenue that funds them. In the private sector, when growth cools, salary budgets cool with it. The best nationwide surveys point to employer salary-increase budgets around 3.7 percent in 2025, lower than what some county contracts locked in for this cycle. In other words, the market is tapping the brakes while the county keeps its foot on the gas.
It’s not just base pay. Criminal-justice departments, from the Sheriff’s Office to Corrections, have faced vacancies that push overtime higher and chew through budgets. That’s not a talking point; it’s what department leaders have been explaining. Overtime to backfill shortages is the most expensive way to staff core public safety, and it shows up in the red ink.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: “Cost of living” is not a magical money tree in government any more than it is in your household. If income remains flat and costs rise, you must either cut elsewhere, raise additional income, or slow the growth in costs. Pretending otherwise is how you end up raiding reserves today and facing service cuts tomorrow.
If we want services tomorrow, we need guardrails today:
• Tie general wage bumps to actual revenue performance. When forecasts miss by a mile, automatic cost-of-living adjustements shouldn’t roll through unexamined. Build revenue triggers into contracts: if sales-tax growth underperforms, general increases scale down automatically; if it over-performs, employees share in the upside. That’s how many private employers de-risk compensation during uncertain cycles.
• Prefer one-time retention or inflation stipends over permanent base increases when budgets are tight. One-time payments help employees without permanently widening future gaps; especially important when the revenue outlook is cloudy.
• Stage priority exercise. Core functions first. If revenues are running 2 percent and pay is set to grow faster than that, something else has to slow down. That’s not austerity; it’s arithmetic. Put every non-mandated program on the table and rank by outcomes.
• Require independent fiscal notes for labor deals before votes. Taxpayers deserve to see the three-, five-, and ten-year price tag under different revenue scenarios.
• Rebuild reserves with policy, not hope. Cap ongoing spending to trend with actual trailing revenue growth until the fund balance is back at a healthy level; then revisit.
Critics will say this is anti-worker. It’s not. It’s pro-service. If we blow through reserves today, the same deputies, jail staff, road crews and nurses everyone values will be working with hiring freezes and broken equipment tomorrow. Fiscal discipline is how we keep the promises we make;to employees and to the public.
County leaders didn’t cause inflation or a slower retail economy. But they did agree to obligations that assume stronger revenue than we’re getting. That mismatch — not malice, not headlines — is the villain of this story. Fix the mismatch, and the rest of the debate gets a lot less dramatic.
Todd Welch is a columnist for The Herald, addressing local and state issues. He lives in Everett.
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