Analysis: Will Cano’s return lift Mariners to playoffs?

By Ryan Divish

The Seattle Times

HOUSTON — The uniform was different, but that short, violent and rhythmic swing, leading to sound of a baseball hitting squarely on the barrel of a black, lacquered bat was unmistakable.

In the third game of his “rehab” assignment before a return from an 80-game suspension, Robinson Cano smacked a majestic two-run homer on Thursday night at Everett Memorial Stadium. It was the first of three hits for Cano, who started at first base for the second time on his rehab stint.

On Friday night, he repeated that swing, smashing a grand slam to dead center as part of a two-hit night.

After playing third base Saturday and making several plays at a position he hadn’t played since early in his pro career, Cano deemed himself game ready, ending his rehab stint a game early. He had been planning to play for Everett on Sunday. He finished with seven hits in five games, playing first base twice with games at designated hitter, second base and third base.

“He is anxious to play,” M’s manager Scott Servais said.

On Monday, he flew to the Bay Area to meet the Mariners, who will be finishing up a three-city road trip against the Oakland A’s — the team they are battling for an American League wild-card spot.

On Tuesday, he’ll be reinstated from his suspension for violating the MLB-MLBPA Joint Drug Testing agreement.

There are so many questions that don’t have answers yet: Will he be in the lineup Tuesday night? What position will he be playing? Where will he be hitting?

Servais has done his best to remain vague about Cano.

“We’ll be creative,” has become a favorite answer when queried about how they’ll reinsert Cano into the lineup.

How much of a difference will Cano make to the Mariners? Can he help reinvigorate an offense that has been lagging since July 1?

Let’s remember Cano will have missed 80 games. While he got five games of at-bats on his rehab stints in Tacoma and Everett, it’s difficult to expect him to be a complete force upon his return.

Still, Cano is such a gifted hitter, with more than 8,000 career plate appearances at the big-league level, that he won’t be overwhelmed. Servais joked that Cano could show up on the first day of spring training and get three hits in a game. The Mariners could use it.

In the first 39 games of the season with Cano in the lineup, the Mariners as a team averaged 4.69 runs per game with a team slash line (average/on-base/slugging) of .261/.329/.434.

In the 77 games since, they averaged 3.9 runs per game with a .254/.308/.403 slash line. His absence has been particularly glaring in the last 30-plus games when Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger cooled off from their torrid paces, and Kyle Seager continued to struggle. Before the outburst of offense following the recent lineup change before the Astros series, the Mariners were averaging 3.3 runs per game with a slash line of .239/.292./.375 since July 1.

Cano had a slash line of .287/.385/.441 with 10 doubles, four homers and 23 RBI before breaking his hand and accepting the 80-game suspension. The numbers aren’t necessarily overwhelming. But the Mariners were encouraged by Cano’s on-base percentage and 21 walks in 39 games. He was showing an increased level of patience at the plate. That is needed for a team that features several players with a swing-early, swing-often, swing-at-everything approach. Adding another player who is willing to work a count brings lineup diversity.

“That can get contagious when guys see the value of it,” Servais said. “It does slow guys down in their at-bats, and they start playing the game differently.”

It’s been said before and will be repeated in the coming days, “Cano’s return will lengthen the Mariners’ lineup.” Basically, that’s baseball-speak for putting more good hitters in a row.

It will be interesting to see how Seattle gets Cano at-bats. He doesn’t have to play every game, but it would be counterproductive for him to sit more than once or twice a week. Servais did mention that he would like to get Gordon and Seager a day off every so often. Gordon is still dealing with a toe fracture that won’t completely heal during the season and other dings and dents. He’s also been slumping at the plate recently. Seager missed three games for the birth of his daughter, but has otherwise been an everyday player while still not producing at an expected level.

It seems likely that streaky first baseman Ryon Healy, who had a great series vs. the Astros, could see his playing time diminish the most.

Servais said he isn’t concerned about Cano’s return somehow disrupting the clubhouse. He’s been around the team for a large part of his suspension, going to Safeco Field daily for rehab on his surgically repaired hand and working out. He would routinely talk to players before they started their scheduled workouts.

“I think everybody is looking forward to (Cano’s return),” Servais said. “They know he’s part of the team here going forward. Players understand talent. I’ve tried to very open and talking to our guys about things coming down the pike here.”