Analytical look at wild-card race inauspicious for M’s

By Bob Dutton

The News Tribune

SEATTLE — An open date Thursday in the Mariners’ schedule offers a chance to assess before they begin a four-city trip Friday with the first of three weekend games at Tampa Bay.

The Mariners are 61-61 and trail the Los Angeles Angels by 11⁄2 games in a crowded race for the American League’s two wild-card berths. (Yes, those four home losses last weekend to the Angels were costly.)

Nine clubs, as of Thursday, were within 31⁄2 games of a spot with roughly one-quarter of the season remaining.

And since each of the three division leaders has a cushion of at least 41⁄2 games, it’s shaping up as a wild-card scramble over the final six-plus weeks. The Mariners, at this point, are in the thick of it.

“We certainly have the team to (win a wild-card spot),” manager Scott Servais said. If you look at all of the teams that are bunched in the American League, we all have our deficiencies.

“There’s a reason that nobody has been able to win eight or nine in a row. It’s win three or four and then lose three or four. It’s gone back and forth, and every team has done that.”

Baltimore is three games back in the race after losing two of three earlier this week to the Mariners but sees opportunity this weekend in a three-game home series against the Angels.

“We have a chance to roll the dice last six weeks,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said after Wednesday’s 7-6 loss to the Mariners. “That’s what we hope to do, compete with a chance to play in October and we’re still engaged in it.”

Both wild-card spots remain in play because even though the New York Yankees currently hold a three-game lead over the Angels, they also have the toughest remaining schedule.

Just four of the Yankees’ final 43 games are against non-postseason contenders. In contrast, Minnesota has 20 games left against non-contenders. Kansas City has 18, and Texas has 17. The Mariners have nine.

“Who can hang in there the longest?” Servais said, “Then maybe somebody gets hot right at the end. My guess is, looking at all of the teams, it’s probably going to be somebody’s offense that takes it to the next level.

“There’s no data behind that. It’s just my gut feeling.”

Here’s a quick look at the contenders:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Entering Thursday: 64-55 with a three-game lead over Los Angeles for the first wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 43 games (24 home, 19 away). They play 29 games against AL wild-card contenders and 10 more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Yankees are 11-9 in their last 20 games and 17-13 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 87-75 with an 82 percent chance of reaching postseason.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Entering Thursday: 62-59 with a one-half game lead over Kansas City for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 41 games (22 home, 19 away). They play 19 games against AL wild-card contenders and 12 more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Angels are 13-7 in their last 20 games and 18-12 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 82-80 with a 29 percent chance of reaching postseason.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Entering Thursday: 61-59 and trailing Los Angeles by one-half game for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 42 games (22 home, 20 away). They play 14 games against AL wild-card contenders and 10 more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Royals are 8-12 in their last 20 games and 16-14 in their last 30.

Computer projection: 82-80 with a 24 percent chance of reaching postseason.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Entering Thursday: 59-58 and trailing Los Angeles by one game for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 45 games (20 home, 25 away). They play 20 games against AL wild-card contenders and five more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Twins are 10-10 in their last 20 games and 14-16 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 81-81 with a 16 percent chance of reaching postseason.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Entering Thursday: 61-61 and trailing Los Angeles by 11⁄2 games for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 40 games (15 home, 25 away). They play 22 games against AL wild-card contenders and nine more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Mariners are 10-10 in their last 20 games and 16-14 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 81-81 with a 12 percent chance of reaching postseason.

TEXAS RANGERS

Entering Thursday: 59-60 and trailing Los Angeles by two games for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 43 games (21 home, 22 away). They play 20 games against AL wild-card contenders and six more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Rangers are 11-9 in their last 20 games and 15-15 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 81-81 with an 18 percent chance of reaching postseason.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Entering Thursday: 60-62 and trailing Los Angeles by 21⁄2 games for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 40 games (20 home, 20 away). They play 26 games against AL wild-card contenders and six more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Rays are 7-13 in their last 20 games and 11-19 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 80-82 with a 12 percent chance of reaching postseason.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Entering Thursday: 59-62 and trailing Los Angeles by three games for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 41 games (23 home, 18 away). They play 27 games against AL wild-card contenders and nine more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Orioles are 11-9 in their last 20 games and 17-13 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 79-83 with a 6 percent chance of reaching postseason.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Entering Thursday: 58-62 and trailing Los Angeles by 31⁄2 games for the second wild-card berth.

Games remaining: 42 games (19 home, 23 away). They play 23 games against AL wild-card contenders and nine more against current AL division leaders.

Recently: The Blue Jays are 12-8 in their last 20 games and 16-14 in their last 30 games.

Computer projection: 78-84 with a 5 percent chance of reaching postseason.

Note: The computer projections were determined by averaging the projections from www.BaseballProspectus.com, www.Fangraphs.com and www.FiveThirtyEight.com.