EVERETT — The Everett AquaSox were in trouble.
Leading 7-5 against the Eugene Emeralds in the ninth inning at Funko Field on Aug. 31, AquaSox closer Gabriel Sosa walked Eugene designated hitter Quinn McDaniel to load the bases with two outs. Sosa had already allowed a run earlier in the frame, and a base hit next would almost certainly tie the game, if not give Eugene the lead.
Blown saves are never a good thing for any baseball team, but slipping here — against the same team they would be set to face off with for the Northwest League Championship in just over two weeks — would be devastating for Everett.
Through the first five games of the series, Eugene dominated in nearly every facet. The Emeralds outscored the AquaSox 44-20, winning each game. They had twice as many hits with runners in scoring position (RISP), and the Eugene pitchers allowed fewer than half as many earned runs.
So when Sosa induced a groundout from Eugene leadoff hitter Nate Furman — who was 11-for-23 (.478) with seven walks, five homers and 11 RBIs in the series alone entering that at bat — securing the 7-5 victory for Everett and avoiding the six-game sweep, it meant a little more than a typical Sunday victory in August.
“We’ve had some ups and downs, and to be able to come on top in the last game, it’s great for momentum and confidence,” AquaSox infielder Charlie Pagliarini said. “We have a great group of guys, so we’re not really too worried about that. We’re excited to play them in the playoffs, and have some fun.”
Following the final regular season series against Vancouver, which was split 3-3, the AquaSox travel to Eugene to take on the Emeralds in Game 1 of the Northwest League Championship Series on Tuesday. Game 2 will be Wednesday, with Game 3 of the best-of-five series returning to Everett on Friday. Games 4 and 5, if necessary, will remain at Funko Field on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Everett secured their spot by winning the first half title with a 37-29 record. Eugene (49-17) won the second half, during which the AquaSox finished dead-last at 23-43. In the month of August, the Emeralds went 19-8, and have won 11 of their past 12 games entering the postseason. Meanwhile, the AquaSox dragged at 6-21 in August, and have lost eight of their past 12.
On an individual level, among the Everett players who appeared in at least half of the games last month (14 games), Carter Dorighi had the highest batting average at .286, while Pagliarini (.948) had the highest OPS. Eugene, meanwhile, had four players who eclipsed a .300 average and three with an OPS above 1.000 in that same span.
The Emeralds had 13 pitchers throw at least 10 innings in August; only five posted ERAs above 4.00, with five more who were sub-3.00. The AquaSox had just two of 11 such pitchers with an ERA below 4.00, and none below 3.00.
The starting pitching improved across the board against Vancouver this past week — none of the six allowed more than two earned runs — but on paper, it’s a tale of two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum.
However, the AquaSox are familiar with these stakes, with a manager in Zach Vincej and a plethora of players who won the California League Championship with Single-A Modesto last season. Their freshest memory against the Emeralds being a win only strengthens their confidence.
“The stakes are going to be a little bit higher,” Vincej said. “Heart rates are going to be up a little bit, you know? And I think guys that have already done that in the past (are) super crucial.
“Especially for the guys that haven’t been here in the past. The guys like (shortstop Felnin) Celesten that (haven’t) been a part of something like that before, you know? Those are the type of guys that are older guys and have done it already can help him out.”
However, the overall second-half performance and recent head-to-head sample prior to the series finale does not bode well for Everett. In those first five games, the AquaSox went 8-for-43 (.186) with RISP, while Eugene capitalized at a significantly better clip at 16-for-52 (.308). The Emeralds batters had a higher walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.56) than Everett (0.44), while their pitching staff had a 3.60 ERA compared to Everett’s 8.00.
If that continues Tuesday into Friday, this championship series will be over quickly. But the recipe is there for the AquaSox, who managed to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and were propped up by a strong starting pitching performance on Aug. 31 to get the win.
Everett went 4-for-10 (.400) with RISP and left eight on base compared to stranding 14 Eugene runners, holding them to 2-for-14 (.143) with RISP. If the AquaSox can consistently pull through in that area in which they’ve struggled recently, the championship series will be much closer than expected.
“If we can have good at-bats, working the counts, fighting all the way until the end, I like our chances,” Vincej said. “I think we just gotta limit the at-bats where we give them away, swing at bad pitches. Those are all super important to think about. So I think if we focus on that, get good pitches to hit, put some contact out there, we’re going to be alright.”
On the mound, starter Nick Payero allowed seven hits and two earned runs across 4.2 innings on Aug. 31. Both runs were off Eugene solo shots in the fifth inning. Prior to that, Payero mowed down the Emeralds lineup in the first two innings before wiggling his way out of jams in the third and fourth.
For Payero, the key to the AquaSox pitchers locking down the Emeralds bats will be sticking to their strengths and not doing “too much.”
“When we do that, we handle them pretty well,” Payero said. “It’s when we try to make a perfect pitch, try to spin a pitch better than last, and that’s when we fall behind, walk guys, and that’s when they’re dangerous. But if we get ahead, we can definitely beat this team.”
Another variable for both sides will be the “all hands on deck” nature of a playoff series. Vincej confirmed that typical pitching schedules and lineup rotations are all but out the window. With the built-in travel/rest day on Thursday, both teams should be even fresher for the back half of the series.
Everett will pit their best against Eugene’s.
“We’re just going to put our best guys in the best situations possible and see what happens,” Vincej said.
No matter what predictions can be made based on stats and history, it will all come down to the games this week. First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. on Tuesday.
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