Warning, I’m going to continue my argument against the relevance of analytics in the assessment and prediction of athletic competitions.
And I’m going to use analytics, averages and statistical performances as the foundational logic. Hoop hypocrites unite.
None of this stuff is guaranteed predictive when humans are competing in high-pressure situations.
But that’s especially true when the NCAA selection committee examines Gonzaga’s men’s team.
They almost always undervalue the Zags. The math says so.
On Sunday, despite a Net Evaluation Tool ranking of eighth in the country, the committee slotted the Zags as an eighth seed in the Midwest Region — their lowest seeding since 2014.
They will travel to Wichita, Kansas, for a Thursday match against No. 9-seed Georgia, one of 14 Southeast Conference teams in the NCAAs.
An example of screwy statistics, No. 9 teams beat No. 8s in the first round 52% of the time.
As far as Gonzaga is concerned, the NET computers love them and somewhat subjectively for a machine driven by a silicon chip and electronic circuits, they claim that GU has been victimized by bad fortune all season.
The eighth seed is more in line with the Zags’ lack of appreciation in the AP rankings, outside the Top 25.
But in the most recent coaches’ poll, GU is back in the rankings, at 23. Purdue is just one place higher, at 22, but is a No. 4 seed in the tournament.
The KenPom ratings have the Zags at No. 9 in the country. The service reported the Zags had out-performed their seeding in 11 of the last 14 tournaments, and the three times they didn’t, they had been a No. 1 seed.
In the last nine years, all Sweet 16 appearances, they’ve averaged 2.88 tournament wins, more than two wins above the typical No. 8 seed.
The tournament is supposed to be tough. But this will be a particularly difficult week, and will direly test GU’s record streak of nine consecutive Sweet 16 appearances.
Georgia, although only 8-10 in the SEC, scored wins this season over No. 1-seed Florida, No. 2-seed St. John’s and No. 3-seed Kentucky.
If GU can top Georgia, they get No. 1-seed Houston, 30-4. Spectacularly athletic and defensive, the Cougars have won 13 straight.
Coach Mark Few has led the Zags to 27 straight NCAA berths. He’s won 43 NCAA Tournament games along the way. He obviously knows what it takes.
He recently downplayed the importance of seeds and first-round sites. And also the challenges of top teams down the road in your bracket.
He said last week, after they topped Saint Mary’s to claim the automatic qualifier berth with the conference tournament title, “… we’ve got to be able to win in a bunch of different ways.”
The comment was particularly relevant after having defeated Saint Mary’s 58-51. It was the kind of low-possession game that favors Saint Mary’s. But they juggled some things and found a way to compete at a tempo generally not suited to them.
Few wasn’t expected to take sixth man Braden Huff, who had started one game all season, and put him in the lineup against the fearsome front court of Saint Mary’s.
But it worked to perfection, as Huff led the Zags in scoring and disrupted the Gaels’ defense.
Georgia hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2015. They’re led by 6-11 freshman, Asa Newell (15.3 points a game).
Great talent, but how’s he going to feel in his first NCAA appearance, especially against the veteran Zags, with a backcourt of Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard, who have played in a combined 17 NCAA tournament games?
As former national championship coach Jay Wright commented during the selection show, “Gonzaga is playing at the top of their game,” and said the potential matchup against Houston in the second round would be “a monster game.”
They’ve won monster games before. A lot of them in the NCAA tournament, in fact.
In all four of the last NCAAs, a team seeded No. 8 or below has made it to the Final Four, with North Carolina being the runner-up as recently as 2022.
The Zags have pulled off longer-odd achievements than that.
You can check the data.
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