The NFC got a lot of love from the HOTG (hey we’re in an NFC town, right?), so that means the AFC gets short-shrift. Let’s get going:
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers: The Shawne Merriman situation not-with-standing, San Diego is just too good not to win this division. Throw in the fact Denver, Oakland and Kansas City are not good — at all — and you have the biggest shoo-in for a division champ in the NFL this season.
Best value: Antonio Gates, TE
It’s hard to imagine Gates as undervalued but I believe he has been this season. I think Gates will bounce back from a mediocre (for him) season at 704 yards and a mere 8 scores. As defenses are forced to shift more of their attention to Vincent Jackson and keep an eye out for Darren Sproles out of the backfield, expect Gates’ numbers to mushroom back up to 1000/10.
Worst value: Philip Rivers, QB
Rivers threw for 4,000 yards and 34 touchdowns, which means you’ll have to take him in the first four rounds of your draft. With LaDainian Tomlinson back to full strength and defense dominating again, expect Rivers’ numbers to come back down to earth.
Sleeper: Darren Sproles, RB
There’s a lot of wear and tear on Tomlinson’s tires, so a major injury isn’t out of the question. Sproles won’t take over the majority of the carries, but he would become a good No. 2 RB if LDT went down.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: The preseason hasn’t been kind to the remaining AFC West teams and the Chiefs are no exception. Matt Cassel went down with an injury and the offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was unceremoniously dumped after less than two weeks before the opener. That’s not good, but at least Todd Haley, who ran Arizona’s offense last season, is better than who Oakland’s got calling the plays.
Best value: Larry Johnson, RB
My feelings on Johnson were made clear in last week’s column. He’s a starter that will get 80-percent of the work (if healthy) and you can get him in the sixth round.
Worst value: Dwayne Bowe, WR
It’s not that Bowe is going to be bad, but he’s going higher than I’d like in most drafts. He and Cassel aren’t on the same page yet, and Cassel’s injury should only make that worse.
Sleeper: Sean Ryan, TE
I’m not saying draft Ryan unless he’s your No. 2 in a deep league, but keep an eye on him. Tony Gonzalez is in Atlanta and all those catches have to go somewhere.
3. Denver Broncos: This team’s problems are widely publicized. New head coach Josh McDaniels offends Cutler, deals him for an awful Kyle Orton, then offend Brandon Marshall, who pouts and now is in danger of alienating the entire team. The defense is still bad, which should force the offense to throw early and often.
Best value: Brandon Marshall, WR
Look the guys an immature idiot, but he’s got skills. If everything gets patched up between him and McDaniels by Week 2 he’s a top-10 wideout that’s going in round 6-7. That’s value.
Worst value: Knowshon Moreno, RB
Rookie running backs are rarely difference-makers and Moreno is being drafted like one. He is a three-tool guy and he’s McDaniels’ guy, so I’m not saying there’s upside here, just don’t pay too much for him.
Sleeper: Brandon Stokley, WR
There’s limitations here, but if Eddie Royal gets hurt Stokley could become the Wes Welker of this offense. Keep an eye on him.
4. Oakland Raiders: This is a team that just continues to mystify me … and, I think, will continue to do so until Al Davis passes from this world. The trade for Richard Seymour was highway robbery from New England’s side and must have had Bill Belichick smiling as he hung up the phone with the fools in Raiderland. That came a day after they cut Jeff Garcia, who looked like their best option at quarterback. Not good times.
Best value: Zach Miller, TE
Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is either going to toss incompletions deep or hit Miller over the middle or Darren McFadden in the flat. Miller went for 778/1 last season and should be able to put up similar yardage and more TD numbers this season. He’s going later than guys like Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley and he’ll put up similar numbers.
Worst value: Darren McFadden, RB
There really isn’t anyone else off this roster being taken so he gets it by default. It’s not that I don’t think he’s going to be better in ’09, but with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush around to poach carries, he’s not worth a fourth-round pick.
Sleeper: Chaz Schilens, WR
The second-year wideout was a popular late-round pick in drafts before he went down with a foot injury. Now he’s been completely forgotten about. Don’t draft him, but when he comes back (projected Week 2) he might be a good add.
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