History.
That’s what the 2015 NFL season is all about for the Seattle Seahawks.
When the Seahawks set foot on the field for the first time Sunday at St. Louis they have only one thing on their minds: marching their way to their third straight Super Bowl.
Seattle is on the brink of dynasty status. The Seahawks won 25 of their 32 games the past two seasons, destroying the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII and coming within one yard of repeating against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX. In 2013 and 2014 Seattle’s defense led the league in fewest points allowed and fewest yards gained. If the Seahawks can get themselves into Super Bowl 50 they’ll cement themselves as one of the great teams in NFL history.
That’s no pipe dream as Seattle’s window remains wide open. The Seahawks have almost the entire core of the team that reached the past two Super Bowls intact, having locked up the likes of quarterback Russell Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner to long-term contracts during the offseason. They, along with the likes of cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas, are all in the primes of their careers.
The Seahawks still have the sturdy shoulders of battering ram running back Marshawn Lynch to rest the burden of the offense upon.
And in Jimmy Graham Seattle has the type of weapon in the passing game the Seahawks haven’t had at their disposal during this run. One could argue the addition of Graham makes Seattle a better team than it was a year ago. Indeed, five of NFL.com’s writers picked the Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl, with three predicting a Seattle victory.
But make no mistake, history is not on Seattle’s side. Just twice in NFL history has a team advanced to the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. The Miami Dolphins played in three consecutive Super Bowls from 1972-74, winning twice, and the Buffalo Bills went to four straight Super Bowls from 1991-94, losing all four. Both of those runs came before the salary cap was instituted in 1994, meaning Seattle is trying to be the first team to accomplish the feat under rigorous financial constraints.
History is particularly unkind to the losers of Super Bowls. Just seven times in 48 attempts has the Super Bowl loser returned to the game the following year, and it hasn’t happened since the last of Buffalo’s four-straight losses in the 1990s. So the Seahawks, who fell 28-24 to New England in heartbreaking fashion in February, will have to do something no other team has managed in more than two decades.
And while the Seahawks sill have the talent of a Super Bowl team, Seattle’s margin of error has shrunk.
One of the reasons why the Seahawks were able to assemble such a strong roster was their uncanny ability to find impact players on the cheap. Seattle struck gold in the draft by selecting Pro Bowlers like Wilson (third round 2012), Sherman (fifth round 2011) and Kam Chancellor (fifth round 2010) in the later rounds. Having a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback like Wilson hitting the salary cap at a number less than $700,000 the past three seasons was a luxury no other team in the NFL could draw upon.
That advantage is gone now. Success comes with a price tag, and the bill collector has come calling.
Those deemed necessary to the cause have been given lucrative contract extensions the past two offseasons, with some of those kicking in big-time this season. That’s eaten into Seattle’s salary cap. According to OverTheCap.com, the 13 highest-earning players on Seattle’s roster now take up approximately $92 million of the $143 million salary cap. Add in the $12 million the Seahawks have in dead money and that leaves less than $40 million to spread among the other 40 players on the 53-man roster, as well as the practice squad.
Those who weren’t deemed necessary have been allowed to leave. The inability to re-sign the likes of receiver Golden Tate, linebacker Malcolm Smith and cornerback Byron Maxwell the past two seasons, while not fatal, has eroded Seattle’s depth.
Meanwhile, a handful of those still in the fold, seeing their peers move into new tax brackets, are now dissatisfied with their contracts. Defensive end Michael Bennett is constantly grumbling, while Chancellor is in the midst of a holdout that has no end in sight. That creates another element of destabilization.
The way the Seahawks are compensating for their top-heavy roster is by searching for bargains. It’s a formula that’s worked in the past.
Phase one of that process is in the draft. General manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll have received all kinds of praise for their adeptness in the draft, and that praise is well deserved. However, the Seahawks haven’t been as successful in recent drafts as they were in 2010-12. The 2010-12 drafts produced 13 players who started in at least one of the past two Super Bowls. The only starter on Seattle’s current depth chart who was mined from the 2013 and 2014 drafts is offensive guard Justin Britt. The Seahawks are hoping this year’s draft proves more fruitful, with the early returns on defensive end Frank Clark (second round) and receiver/return man Tyler Lockett (third round) looking more promising.
Phase two is skimping on specific units. In the past Seattle has saved money on its receivers. This season it’s the offensive line as three of the five projected starters hit the cap at less than $800,000. It’s a risky strategy, but a calculated one as the Seahawks believe Wilson’s scrambling acumen and Lynch’s ability to gain yards after contact lessen the need for an exceptional offensive line.
Will the Seahawks’ stars be enough to carry the rest of the team back to the Super Bowl?
Maybe.
But everything will need to break right for the Seahawks for that to happen. History says so.
Check out Nick Patterson’s Seattle Sidelines blog at http://www.heraldnet.com/seattlesidelines, and follow him on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.
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