It’s so generous of the nation’s bowls to allot the Pacific-10 Conference seven bids.
Generous, because we can’t make a case for more than four teams having records to qualify.
The Pac-10 has contracts with the Rose, Holiday, Sun, Insight, Las Vegas, Emerald and Silicon Valley Classic Bowl games. If two teams make BCS bowls, as many as eight could qualify for the rest. But from this angle, just four teams will have the prerequisite six victories needed to get in.
This weekend will do much to help make that decision.
The loser of the Oregon State-Stanford game will join Arizona and Washington watching bowl games on television. The winner also has to win its finale. In those finales, Oregon State (4-5) hosts improving Oregon (5-4) while Stanford (4-5) plays at powerful Cal (7-1).
Washington State (4-5) has to win at Arizona State (7-2) Saturday and beat Washington (1-8) to notch six victories.
We certainly can see UCLA (5-4) fall short with losses at Oregon (5-4) and at home against USC (8-0). Oregon can qualify by beating either UCLA Saturday or winning at Oregon State Nov. 20. Neither are gimmes, although the Ducks will be favored in both.
Let’s assume top-ranked USC runs the table and crashes the Orange Bowl for the BCS title game. Should Cal do the same it should go to the Rose Bowl. The Golden Bears have a road game at Washington, a home game against Stanford and one at Southern Mississippi, a makeup affair brought on by one of the hurricanes.
This is where it gets interesting.
If Cal, fourth in the BCS standings, runs the table, gets a loss each from Auburn and Oklahoma and avoids Wisconsin passing it in the standings, it sets up a delicious rematch with USC, a 23-17 winner in a game between the two on Oct. 9.
Heaven help us all.
Realistically, though, here’s how we see the bowl picture shaking out for the Pac-10:
USC vs. Oklahoma in the BCS title game.
Cal vs. Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Not only will Berkeley flood the joint, this is one tasty matchup. Wow. Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Arrington and all those great receivers against the Badgers’ monster defense. I’d drop in on a lot of blood banks to afford a scalper for that one.
Arizona State vs. Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl.
Oregon vs. Northwestern in the Sun Bowl.
Washington vs. Cal
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. p.m., Husky Stadium.
TV: none.
Radio: KJR radio (950 AM).
Stars to watch: Washington – Casey Paus starts at quarterback, with the ever-present possibility of either Isaiah Stanback or Carl Bonnell taking some snaps starting sometime in the second quarter. Kenny James has been adequate at tailback. His backup, Shelton Sampson, has mixed fine runs with untimely fumbles. Receiver Craig Chambers, a Jackson High grad, has started the last two games. Defensively, the Huskies’ three linebackers, Joe Lobendahn, Scott White and Evan Benjamin, have been outstanding, along with defensive end Manase Hopoi, the conference leader in sacks and tackles for loss.
Cal – Aaron Rodgers, who completes better than 70 percent of his passes, might be the best quarterback in the conference, if not the nation. J.J. Arrington leads the Pac-10 in rushing and has run for 188 yards in each of his last two games. He averages 7 yards a carry. Geoff McArthur heads a great set of receivers. Defensively, end Ryan Riddle has 13 tackles for loss, including 10 sacks. Safety Ryan Gutierrez leads the team with 54 tackles, 11 coming against Oregon last week.
Breaking down the game: To pull off the upset, Washington would have to play contrary to the way it’s played all season. It simply can’t afford to make mistakes, and the Huskies are among the most error-prone teams in the nation. Can the Huskies make an impact on defense? Only if they mercilessly harass Rodgers and don’t let receivers get behind the secondary. Remember back to last year (Cal gained 729 yards and won 54-7) to predict how successful that might be. The Golden Bears have to remember that they’re playing for a Rose Bowl bid and don’t overlook Washington.
Bottom line: Too much to overcome for Washington.
Pick: Cal, 49-3.
Washington State vs. Arizona State
Kickoff: 4 p.m., Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Ariz.
TV: TBS (cable)
Radio: KYCW radio (1090 AM)
Stars to watch: Washington State – Tailback Jerome Harrison set a school record with 42 carries in last week’s 31-29 win over UCLA. He gained 247 yards, second-highest total in the conference this season, behind UCLA’s Maurice Drew’s 322 against Washington. Wideout Jason Hill leads the Pac-10 with 10 TD receptions. Defensive end Adam Braidwood has eight tackles for loss in the last three games. Linebacker Will Derting is sixth in the conference in tackles.
Arizona State – Quarterback Andrew Walter has 25 touchdown passed to just eight interceptions. Wideout Derek Hagen has 58 receptions, second in the conference. Wideout Terry Richardson has 40 catches. Linebacker Dale Robinson averages 7.9 tackles a game.
Breaking down the game: Defensively, the Cougars have to slow down ASU’s passing attack. That won’t be easy. Turnovers would be nice. If the pass rush can get to Walter, so much the better. ASU has given up 30 sacks, second-worst in the conference. WSU’s new-found ground-game, behind Harrison, worked fine against defense-poor UCLA. The test will be more rugged against the Sun Devils.
Bottom line: ASU’s simply too explosive.
Pick: ASU, 35-17.
Other Pac-10 games
UCLA at Oregon: Give the Ducks credit for coming a PAT short of powerful Cal. Kellen Clemens is creeping up on the conference’s elite quarterbacks, and that’s saying something. Pick: Oregon, 38-13.
Oregon State at Stanford: Crucial game for both if they want to slip into a bowl. Buddy Teevens is thinking of benching Trent Edwards after three straight awful games. The Beavers and the fog came close to knocking off USC. Pick: Oregon State, 31-14.
Arizona at USC: The Wildcats’ win streak stops at one. Pick: USC, 49-10.
Sleeper pick of the week: Auburn 24, Georgia 23.
John Sleeper is The Herald’s college writer
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