Judge Kirby

It’s always wise to watch what we say, because words tend to rise again as reminders of how wrong we can be.

For example:

American League West prediction: Seattle Mariners, Oakland A’s, Anaheim Angels, Texas Rangers.” Kirby Arnold in The Herald, March, 2003.

Oops.

I really thought this was the year the Mariners would avoid being, well, the Mariners, and maintain their division lead to the finish. Collectively, the pitching staff was stronger, the bench was better and, maybe most important, no way would Mike Cameron and Jeff Cirillo duplicate the horrid seasons they had in 2002.

Oh my.

If it’s any consolation, the Mariners were talking with a fair amount of confidence themselves.

Remember?

This team has a history of getting out of the gate fast.” Manager Bob Melvin during spring training.

If the 2003 season should bury anything, it’s the notion that those first 19 games in April against the AL West are vital to the success of the season.

The Mariners did jump out of the gate well – going 11-8 and taking a one-game lead over Oakland after the first run through the AL West. When they beat Atlanta two out of three in what seemed like a World Series preview, the Mariners were 23 games over .500 and eight games ahead of the A’s on June 13.

By June 24, the Mariners had their 50th victory in their 75th game.

Then they won only 40 of the next 84.

Both teams are good defensively, the starting pitching might be better this year, and the bullpen is basically the same.” Jeff Nelson in June, comparing the 2003 Mariners with the 2001 team that won 116 games.

When Nelson uttered those words, the Mariners had an eight-game division lead, they’d already won 50 games before the halfway point in the season and a lot of people were doing a lot of math.

Things change in baseball, as they say, and Nelson knew it. For a look at Nelson’s words of prophecy, see below.

I’ve had some coaches comment that the ball is jumping off my bat better.” Jeff Cirillo, enthusiastic during spring training at the improvement in his hitting.

Does anything better illustrate how misleading spring training can be? Cirillo’s .249 average last year seemed glorious compared with the .205 he’s at now.

Once we get Kaz back, we feel like we’ll be back at full strength and that we’ll have some options in all sorts of different roles.” Melvin, on the bullpen balance that fell apart after closer Kazuhiro Sasaki suffered broken ribs when he stumbled over his suitcase.

Sasaki never returned to the closer role and the bullpen turned into a mix-and-match effort that sometimes resulted in the equivalent of plaid pants with a striped shirt.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa became an excellent closer but his presence there robbed the bullpen of his invaluable work as a setup reliever against left-handed hitters.

Jeff Nelson was traded after criticizing management for not improving the team at the trade deadline and Arthur Rhodes struggled with a sprained ankle.

The once-automatic Shiggy-Rhodes-Nelson-Sasaki finish became a mish-mash of setup and closing that involved rookies Julio Mateo and Rafael Soriano, enigmatic Armando Benitez, struggling Rhodes and Hasegawa.

The fans come here to the greatest facility in baseball and support this team unbelievably. They deserve more than just, ‘OK, we stood pat again.’ Out of all the three sports here, the Mariners stand the greatest shot at getting a championship in this city. When you win 300 games in three years, you are that close. Maybe that extra player we could have gotten today could have gotten us there.” Relief pitcher Jeff Nelson on July 31 after another trade deadline passed without a significant move by the Mariners.

Six days later, Nelson was gone in a trade to the Yankees for Benitez.

Sometimes the words we speak are prophetic. Long before the trade deadline, there were hints that the Mariners wouldn’t make an impact deal; there was the thought that some players would falter again near the end of the season; and the feat that others would never solve the problems that afflicted them last year.

Remember?

We have to take a look and see what flexibility, if any, it leaves us in the future. It will affect what kind of flexibility we have.” Assistant general manager Lee Pelekoudas in February after an arbitrator awarded Freddy Garcia a $6.875 million salary for 2003, almost $1 million more than the Mariners had offered.

The Mariners have a contingency fund for such things, but the message that day was loud: The money that flowed into Garcia’s pocket would inhibit how much salary the team would add with in-season moves.

To twist a quote from Rocky Bridges 19 years ago when he managed the Everett Giants: “The only way the Mariners will turn loose of a nickel is to get a better grip on it.”

Whether the reasons were financial or otherwise, the Mariners didn’t address their needs – a power hitter for the offense and a left-handed pitcher for the bullpen – and they floundered the rest of the season.

I just hope we do something this time.” Nelson, two weeks before the trade deadline.

In essentially the verbal forerunner to the post-trade-deadline criticism of management that got him traded, Nelson stressed that a marquee acquisition can be important to a team’s psychological well-being.

We know how that turned out. Nelson is back in the playoffs; the Mariners aren’t.

I’m not a machine and it sometimes does happen. It’s very difficult to pinpoint what was the cause of that. I’m still learning from that.” Ichiro Suzuki at spring training after faltering at the finish of the 2002 season, when he batted .248 the final month.

Suzuki, apparently, is still learning. Entering Friday’s game, he had 31 hits in his previous 150 at-bats (a .207 average).

Last year I was so screwed up I didn’t have an idea up there. There were times of greatness, and there were times when I didn’t have a clue. There are a lot of goals I want to achieve, but the No. 1 goal is consistency. No. 2 is preparation. I want to prepare myself to be a better hitter.” Mike Cameron at spring training, vowing to change the problems that led to his league-high 176 strikeouts last year.

Cameron had cut his whiffs to 136 entering Friday, second-most in the league behind Jason Giambi’s 139. He also had just 12 hits in his previous 87 at-bats.

If you don’t go to your bench early, then you get forced to do it. If you don’t, then come playoff time your guys aren’t rested and you’re limping in. Hopefully we don’t get to that point.” John Mabry at spring training on the proper use of bench players.

Melvin never settled into a rotation that would give key players regular rest. It didn’t help that Mabry and Greg Colbrunn, two veterans who the team needed for their experience off the bench, suffered injuries.

As a result, the Mariners’ four main reserves – Mabry, Colbrunn, Willie Bloomquist and Mark McLemore – combined for fewer at-bats (659) than Ichiro Suzuki had (665) entering the final series.

Finally, there were words that Mariners fans didn’t want to hear.

I think this year most likely will be the last one. I’ll probably take a break and enjoy the things I haven’t been able to enjoy in the summertime for years. In some ways I’m looking forward to that.” Edgar Martinez at spring training as he prepared for his 21st professional season.

Martinez seemed less committed to that stance as the summer went on, saying he would play out the season and have a long talk with his family before deciding if he’ll play again.

JUDGE KIRBY

Remember when the last day of the Mariners’ season meant keeping one eye on the Seahawks’ score?

When the only intrigue was whether a minor league call-up would show any promise for next year? Or if the entire team could muster as much enthusiasm for the final Sunday of baseball as they would for the first Monday of golf?

Oh yeah. That’s how the Mariners finished last season, after two years of postseason baseball elevated everyone’s expectations, only to deflate them with a late nosedive out of first place.

Here we are again.

This was supposed to be the weekend that meant everything to the Mariners. Now it means nothing while they serve as scrimmage material for the Oakland A’s tuneup for the playoffs.

The season ended last week as far as the Mariners were concerned.

Today, they finish it with a different kind of drama. It’s personal now, especially for Edgar Martinez, Jamie Moyer, Mark McLemore, Mike Cameron and Pat Gillick.