Eighty-two games, and at least that many questions about the Seattle SuperSonics at the dawn of the 2004-05 NBA season.
We might not have all 82 answers, but here’s a few to get you started:
Q: The Sonics won 45 games in 2001-02, 40 games in 2002-03 and 37 games last season. Aren’t they going in the wrong direction?
A: Record-wise, yes, but there’s an explanation. The organization is trying to put pieces together to be really good in another three or four seasons. For now, though, the Sonics are a very young team.
Whether they get better in the next few years depends on youngsters like Rashard Lewis, Luke Ridnour, Nick Collison, Vlade Radmanovic, Flip Murray and Robert Swift. If they don’t develop all that much, the team could stay stuck in mediocrity. But if they improve a lot – collectively, as well as individually – the Sonics could again be playoff contenders.
Will that happen this year? Probably not. But, frankly, we believe the team’s future is brighter than its recent past. We cite the Detroit Pistons, who in 2000-01 went 32-50 and missed the playoffs.
The next season they were 50-32 and reached the conference semifinals. In 2002-03 they were again 50-32 and advanced to the conference finals. Last season they were 54-28 and won the NBA title. Three years after a dismal season, and with the benefit of some shrewd personnel moves, the Pistons were champs. Often, that’s how it works.
By the way, one of the executives who helped lay the foundation in Detroit was Rick Sund, today Seattle’s general manager.
Q: Fine, the Sonics should be better a few years from now. But what about this season? Where will they finish in the NBA’s new Northwest Division?
A: We’re guessing last among the five teams. We know Minnesota is much better than Seattle, and the young teams in Denver and Utah are also ahead of the Sonics. Portland probably has an edge, too, though the capricious Blazers might be the one team Seattle can catch.
Q: So that means no playoffs again, right?
A: Most likely, since just eight of the 15 Western Conference teams go to the postseason. We figure at least eight teams are better than Seattle, and maybe as many as 10 or 12. Of course, odd things sometimes happen over a six-month season.
Q: Let’s talk about some of the players. What kind of potential does Ridnour have? Might he someday be as good as, say, Phoenix All-Star point guard Steve Nash?
A: The Nash-Ridnour comparison is an intriguing one. They’re about the same size, they have a similar on-court style, and they grew up a few miles from each other (Nash in Victoria, British Columbia, and Ridnour in Blaine). Nash developed slowly in his first four seasons, and it was not until his fifth season that he truly blossomed. Now he is one of the best point guards in the game.
Ridnour, meanwhile, is only in his second season. At times he shows flashes of brilliance, but at other times he seems helplessly overmatched. Still, he loves the game and works hard, which are two necessary ingredients. We think he’ll eventually be a very good NBA point guard, though for now we recommend patience.
Q: Speaking of young players, what’s the word on Collison?
A: Here’s a prediction you can take to the bank – Seattle fans are going to love this guy. If not immediately, then soon. Why? Because he plays the game the right way. He hustles, he’s fundamental, and he has a complete game. He is, in a phrase, substance over style. Though he’s not a highlight-film player, he does everything you’d want a power forward to do. Make not mistake, he’s not Karl Malone and he’s not Kevin Garnett. He is, instead, a player who will quietly put together 12 points, seven rebounds and three assists in a typical game.
The Sonics are very high on him, though they’re not making a big fuss just yet. But we share their optimism. We think Collison will be a big part of this franchise for years to come.
Q: Another forward, Lewis, is entering his seventh NBA season. How much better can he get?
A: An interesting question. Lewis just turned 25, which means he’s still young enough to improve. Yet he’s leveled off in the past three years, averaging roughly 18 points and seven rebounds a game in each of those seasons. Good numbers, yes, but probably not the kind that will get him named to many All-Star teams.
We’re starting to think Lewis is, in fact, the player he’ll be. That is, a very good NBA player. But not an outstanding NBA player.
Q: Speaking of not getting better, will Jerome James ever amount to anything?
A: Well, he’s an overpaid, underachieving center. Does that count?
Seriously, James is an enigma to his coaches and teammates. When he plays well – it happens, albeit rarely – he makes useful contributions. For each one of his good moments, though, there are long stretches of listless ineffectiveness.
Because he’s in the last year of his contract, you’d think he would be playing with passion and purpose. It’s not happening. He’s been disappointing in training camp and the preseason. He’ll probably play sparingly this season. And by next season he’ll likely be gone.
Since we’re talking about the centers, you might want to ask about Robert Swift.
Q: OK, what can you tell us about the 7-foot rookie?
A: Glad you asked. He looks pretty much like you’d expect an 18-year-old kid to look. He seems out of place at times, but mostly he’s holding his own. Since he’s so young, it’s hard to know what kind of player he’ll be in another four or five years. We’ll say this much, though. He’s agile, has good hands and runs the floor well for a big man.
Q: Will Ray Allen be back next season?
A: That, quite literally, is the million dollar question. Make that the mega-million dollar question.
Allen, as you know, is in the last year of his contract. Because he will be an unrestricted free agent, he can re-sign with the Sonics or sign with any other NBA team. Few of those teams, though, will be able to offer the kind of money Allen will want, due to constraints by the league’s salary cap. Almost certainly, Seattle will be able to give him the most money, which is typically what pro players want.
That said, anything can happen if Allen truly wants to be somewhere else. That could lead to a sign-and-trade deal, which allows the Sonics to sign Allen to the contract he wants and then trade him to another team for a player or players of comparable value.
For now, no one knows what will happen. Not Allen, not the Sonics, not us. Our best guess, though, is that Allen will stay. He likes the organization and the city, and everyone seems to like him. He may not get all the dollars he wants, but a six-year deal in the neighborhood of $75-80 million is hardly chump change.
Q: Will Nate McMillan be coaching this team five years from now?
A: Who knows? We don’t even know if he’ll be coaching the team next year.
The Sonics want a coach who will bring these young players along so they will, in fact, be a very good team in three or four years. McMillan may be a Sonics legend, but he still needs to convince management that he’s the right man to do that. Because he’s in the last year of his contract, he needs to do it this season.
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