We grew to love it, to embrace it, to expect it. We had gotten to the point where we couldn’t imagine the NFL without it.
And now it’s gone.
Au revoir, parity.
Sure, the 3-0 New York Jets and 4-0 Atlanta Falcons are a bit surprising, but neither team has pulled off a major upset. And there are, inevitably, the surprising early struggles of teams such as Tennessee, Kansas City and Green Bay.
But, for the most part, the 2004 season has been known for its predictability.
Of the 11 division leaders (including co-leaders in the NFC North, AFC South and AFC East), six were considered overwhelming preseason favorites. Seattle, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Denver, Indianapolis and New England all have lived up to big billings thus far. Two others, Atlanta and Jacksonville, were named by several so-called experts as teams on the rise.
That leaves just the Jets, Detroit (2-1) and Pittsburgh (3-1) as shockers thus far. Those three squads, with victories over teams boasting a combined record of 7-24, seem likely to fall back into the pack in the coming weeks.
With the NFL almost a quarter through its regular-season schedule, favorites like New England, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Seattle are still considered the teams to beat. San Francisco, Miami and Buffalo are all predictably bad.
And predictability has been the name of the game thus far.
It stems from a new approach to free agency, with successful franchises keeping their cores together over longer periods of time. Top-notch teams like Philadelphia (Terrell Owens), Denver (Champ Bailey) and New England (Corey Dillon) used trades to add Pro Bowl-caliber players to existing contenders. And then there is the simple fact that most of the non-contenders are in transition stages.
Before the season, we all asked who would be the next Carolina Panthers? The next Atlanta Falcons? The next Baltimore Ravens? While the Kurt Warner-led New York Giants and the Houston Texans are early contenders to be the out-of-nowhere club of 2004, the more pressing questions went unasked:
Who’s going to beat the Patriots? Can anyone stop Terrell Owens? How many games will the Colts win before choking in the playoffs?
The NFL has had its share of excitement thus far – with the obvious exception of when Brad Johnson puts his hands under center – but we’re still waiting for that familiar sense of parity. It would be nice to see the Patriots’ win streak snapped, for starters. Perhaps another Texans win, this time over Minnesota, would counter-balance the axis of evil. And, yes, Seahawks fans, even a St. Louis victory Sunday would be good for the league.
Not that parity is the end-all, be-all. Some might argue that the playoffs were more exciting when there was a villain. When everyone was gunning for the Steel Curtain or the 49ers. When the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills seemed destined for a Super Bowl matchup. (Isn’t it nice to be able to root against the New York Yankees this week, Mariner fans?)
There aren’t really any dynasties anymore, although the Patriots are getting darn close. The only given in postseasons of the 21st Century is that Philadelphia will host the NFC Championship – and lose.
Maybe a New England-Philly Super Bowl would be the best thing in the end. But do we really need to put up with 16 more weeks of predictable football to get there? The bottom line is that things need to be shaken up.
So root like heck for the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers this week. And, heck, even root for the St. Louis Rams.
It might be hard now. But it will make December worth watching.
Rams at Seahawks
Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. Sunday
TV: Fox (Ch. 13)
Radio: KIRO (710 AM)
Stars to watch: Seahawks – Matt Hasselbeck has a 93.0 quarterback rating in four career starts against St. Louis. RB Shaun Alexander needs 107 yards to surpass John L. Williams for third place on the team’s all-time rushing list. DE Grant Wistrom played his first six NFL seasons with the Rams. DT Rocky Bernard has a team-high three sacks.
Rams – RB Marshall Faulk ranks sixth in the NFC with 313 rushing yards, including 121 against San Francisco last Sunday. WR Isaac Bruce leads the NFL in receptions (32) and receiving yards (448). DE Leonard Little played some linebacker last Sunday and got a sack. LB Pisa Tinoisamoa leads the team with 29 tackles.
Breaking down the game: The big question is whether the Rams’ defense can stop anybody … other than San Francisco.
Seattle’s offense, which ranks in the middle of the league despite an arsenal of weapons, could be in for a big day against the NFL’s 27th-ranked defense. Then it would be up to the top-ranked defense to shut down the Rams’ offensive attack.
It’s a pretty safe bet that the Seahawks won’t have the No. 1 defense in the NFL after Sunday, but that doesn’t mean they’ll lose. This one should be an offensive shootout, with Seattle’s defense making the stand when it counts.
Pick: Seahawks, 31-28.
Injury report: Seahawks – LB Chad Brown (left fibula) is out. LB Isaiah Kacyvenski (groin), LB Orlando Huff (hamstring), DE Chike Okeafor (hip) and FB Mack Strong (knee) are probable.
Rams – CB Travis Fisher (forearm) and DT Jimmy Kennedy (foot) are out. G Chris Dishman (knee) and LB Tony Newson (ankle) are questionable. RB Marshall Faulk (shoulder), CB Dejuan Groce (knee), RB Arlen Harris (hamstring), T Scott Tercero (wrist/hand), LB Piso Tinoisamoa (elbow) and LB Robert Thomas (ankle) are probable.
Little-known fact: The last time a team other than Seattle or St. Louis led the NFC West was the final week of the 2002 season, when San Francisco won the division with a 10-6 record.
Other NFL games
Cleveland (2-2) at Pittsburgh (3-1), Sunday, 10 a.m.: Cover the kids’ eyes for this ugly matchup. Unfortunately, it’s must-see TV, because both teams are off to surprising starts. Hey, if “Friends” could pull in that many viewers, anything qualifies as “entertainment.” Pick: Steelers, 10-9.
Detroit (2-1) at Atlanta (4-0), Sunday, 10 a.m.: You might be hard-pressed right now to name the most exciting young player in the NFL. Is it still Mike Vick? Or is it Detroit’s Roy Williams, who has risen to the top of a talented class of rookie wideouts? These guys should overshadow the much-pubbed Mooch-Mora matchup. Pick: Falcons, 24-20.
N.Y. Giants (3-1) at Dallas (2-1), Sunday, 10 a.m.: And we thought Kurt Warner’s Cinderella story had already played out. Maybe the Rams’ title run was just the first chapter. Our guess is that the chariot turns into a pumpkin this week. Pick: Cowboys, 19-16.
Scott M. Johnson is the Herald’s pro football writer
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