Odds are in Mariners’ favor for postseason run

It’s mid-August, smack dab in the middle of summer’s dog days, and the Seattle Mariners are favored above the field for the American League pennant.

Dominant starting pitching, bold moves before MLB’s trade deadline, and a new-look lineup with every resemblance to a postseason contender have launched the Mariners into the upper echelon of the American League. Seattle’s eighth straight win Tuesday evening was a microcosm of it all: George Kirby threw seven shutout innings and deadline acquisition Josh Naylor’s first-inning RBI single pushed the Mariners past the Baltimore Orioles, 1-0, and lifted them into a first-place tie in the American League West.

The ‘Good Vibes Only’ were restored in full force when Seattle took the league’s largest deadline swing, reacquiring All-Star third baseman Eugenio Suarez from Arizona. Naylor has sparkled at first base and wreaked havoc on the bases, fueling conversation for a potential contract extension just weeks into his Mariners tenure.

Gas-throwing closer Andres Munoz remains one of the league’s nastiest arms. Outfielder Victor Robles (left shoulder dislocation) and hard-throwing righty Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) are on the mend, midway through Triple-A rehab assignments. Despite decades of disappointment, rarely does the Emerald City have more of a reason to believe.

“We’re just playing good baseball,” Kirby said Tuesday. “The vibes are good. We’re all having fun.

“The more we do that, the more we can stack some really good games.”

The News Tribune crunches the numbers, explores the odds, and explains the implications of postseason seeding: WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Don’t look now, but the odds are certainly in Seattle’s favor.

The tried-and-true generator of postseason success? Shutdown starting pitching capable of silencing the league’s best lineups.

The Mariners have it.

What’s more telling about Seattle’s roster construction and recent run, and perhaps more exciting for the Pacific Northwest: FanGraphs says the Mariners have the best chance of winning the World Series of any American League club, at 9.9 percent.

FanDuel Sportsbooks agree. Seattle’s odds of winning it all (+900) are the best among AL teams and fourth in MLB behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+350), Philadelphia Phillies (+650), and scalding-hot Milwaukee Brewers (+850).

The Mariners are the only MLB club without a league pennant, but could this be the year? Seattle owns FanDuel’s best odds at winning the American League pennant (+380) for the first time in franchise history. Slightly better lines are available at ESPN Bet, where Seattle’s odds for the AL crown (+425) are second to the Detroit Tigers (+375).

What are Seattle’s odds of making the playoffs altogether? FanGraphs gives the Mariners a 94.8 percent chance of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2022 and just the second time since 2001 — even after they faltered in a 4-3 loss to Baltimore on Wednesday night, snapping their season-long win streak at eight. Seattle enters the final 41 games of the regular season one game behind Houston in the AL West standings.

Baseball Reference projects the Mariners to finish with 90 wins — matching their 2021 and 2022 totals — with a 91.9 percent chance to reach the postseason and 6.6 chance of hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.

SEEDING IMPLICATIONS

The American League awards six postseason allocations for three division champions (AL West, AL Central, AL East) and three wild cards.

The league’s top two seeds — division champions with the most wins — bypass the AL Wild Card round and proceed directly to the American League Division Series (ALDS) with home-field advantage. Seeds 3-6 clash in the AL Wild Card, where No. 3 hosts No. 6 and No. 4 hosts No. 5.

A brief breakdown of the AL Wild Card and Division Series seeded if the season ended on Aug. 13:

AL WILD CARD (Best of 3)

No. 1 — Toronto Blue Jays (BYE)

No. 2 — Detroit Tigers (BYE)

Houston Astros (3) vs. New York Yankees (6)

Seattle Mariners (4) vs. Boston Red Sox (5)

AL DIVISION SERIES (Best of 5)

Toronto Blue Jays (1) vs. Seattle or Boston

Detroit Tigers (2) vs. Houston or New York

In other words, Seattle must do more than dethrone Houston for the AL West crown to clinch a first-round bye — they’ll need to chase down either Toronto or Detroit in the win column, too. They’re currently 3.5 games behind the second-seeded Tigers.

The Mariners have a 66.2 percent chance to reach the ALDS and 36.5 percent chance to reach the American League Championship Series (ALCS), per FanGraphs. WHAT NATIONAL OUTLETS SAY

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander reacquired Eugenio Suarez for more than good vibes. When Seattle dealt infield prospect Tyler Locklear and pitchers Juan Burgos and Hunter Cranton to Arizona for the 34-year-old last month, Suarez was fifth in home runs (36) on MLB’s leaderboard. He was tied with Cal Raleigh for baseball’s RBI lead (87), on pace for a career year as the trade market’s best-available hitter.

Since joining the Mariners on a team flight home from Oakland, Suarez has slashed just .098/.136/.195 with two walks and 17 strikeouts in 11 games. He’s been superb at the hot corner without an error in 103 innings, but the potential resurgence of ‘Geno’s’ bat begs the question: What would it mean for Seattle’s playoff aspirations?

“While he has excellent power, he strikes out a ton and lacks elite on-base ability,” The Athletic’s Andy McCullough wrote in the publication’s weekly power rankings, which raised the Mariners to seventh on the list amid their eight-game win streak. “That is a scary combination for an aging player. The Mariners — who acquired Suárez in 2022, traded him to Arizona for 2024 and reacquired him at last month’s deadline — are still waiting for his slugging to appear in Seattle down the stretch.”

CBS Sports put the Mariners at sixth in their latest MLB power rankings. ESPN’s David Schoenfield ranked Seattle, Boston, and Houston in his third tier of postseason contenders published Sunday — teams that “have work to do.”

How do the Mariners make the playoffs? “Hit better with runners in scoring position,” Schoenfield wrote. “The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS — but they’re just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.”

Yahoo Sports ranked Seattle in similar territory in Tuesday’s power rankings, at ninth.

“Cal Raleigh’s magical, MVP-caliber season just keeps on rolling. The additions of Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor have made an already-strong lineup look like one of baseball’s best offensive units,” Yahoo Sports senior writer Jordan Shusterman wrote. “The pitching is healthier than it has been all season. Although the Mariners likely should’ve added at least one more reliever at the trade deadline, Andres Muñoz and Matt Brash give manager Dan Wilson two elite bullpen options. The Astros are navigating a litany of injuries, making them as vulnerable as they’ve been in years.

“As Ichiro said during his powerful speech at his number retirement ceremony, the time is now; the Mariners must seize the moment and ride their recent surge of momentum to a long-awaited division title.”