First off, I want to say thanks to everyone who contributed to this week’s reader question. A lot of good thoughts there. As I mentioned, I planned on posting an essay with my own thoughts on the subject, so here it is.
What do I think about the current state of the Tips? I think Everett has a good team. It has a good foundation to work from in goaltender Thomas Heemskerk. The forward group is pretty deep with players who can contribute in one way or another. And the defense is better than advertised, thanks in large part to the stellar play of newcomer Radko Gudas. New coach Craig Hartsburg seems to have the players working toward a common goal, and the Tips haven’t gotten gassed in the third period the way they did last season. Overall we’re seeing a much stronger Everett team than in 2008-09.
However, I think that’s where is ends. Everett is a good team. I’m not sure the Tips are a championship team. I can see this Everett team competing in the playoffs, but I’m not sure I see it winning four consecutive series. The Tips have a real solid group of players, but don’t have that elite, transcendent talent who can dictate a game all by himself.
So what should the Tips do?
Conventional wisdom says the Tips should wait until next season to make a run at the league title. Major-junior teams live and die by their 19-year-olds. The strength of Everett’s team is its 18-year-olds, suggesting next season will be the special one in Everett.
However, I’m becoming more and more convinced that this is the season the Tips should go for it.
There are several reasons why I think the Tips should try and make a run sooner rather than later:
– Everett has terrific overagers this season in Shane Harper, Zack Dailey and Chris Langkow. Those three will be difficult to replace next season.
– The Tips have quality goaltending with a solid 19-year-old in Heemskerk and a talented 17-year-old in Kent Simpson.
– I suspect the Tips will lose Gudas and Heemskerk to the pros after the season. Simpson should capably slide into Heemskerk’s spot, but Gudas’ presence will be nearly impossible to replace. And unless those two return Everett’s potential overagers for next season don’t project as high-impact players.
– This looks like a good season to make a play. The league as a whole appears to be a down a little bit, and there doesn’t appear to be a team that is head and shoulders above the rest. Admittedly, I haven’t seen Tri-City or Saskatoon, but I have yet to see a team the Tips would be afraid of come playoff time.
So what would the Tips need to do to make themselves a front runner? In my opinion the Tips need to add two players to become a legitimate title threat.
The first potential move is obvious: Everett needs a scoring winger to complement Harper and Langkow. The Tips have churned through players in that spot searching for a solution. Newcomer Scott MacDonald currently occupies the position and has done a passable job. However, imagine how good that line would be with an elite 19-year-old playing on the left. That would give Everett two scoring lines that could rival anyone in the league.
The second potential move is more speculative because it involves the defense. I think the Tips could use a boost on defense, but I also think the resources may already be on hand to provide that boost. Ryan Murray will be a boon when he returns from his thumb injury (he participated in practice today, though he was still wearing a yellow no-contact jersey). I think Rasmus Rissanen has the ability to provide more, and I think that may happen once the Finn settles into his new surroundings. And Alex Theriau has made great strides since last season. I also think it’s going to be difficult finding quality defensemen available, meaning teams might not be able to upgrade even if they want to (today’s trade where Tri-City had to part with a second-round pick to reacquire nondescript defenseman Eric Mestery is a good illustration of that). But think about how formidable this defense would be with another top-pairing guy on the blue line.
Now here’s the rub. Adding two players of that quality won’t come cheap. Let’s say, hypothetically, the Tips targeted the Regina duo of Jordan Eberle and Colten Teubert (disclaimer: I have no idea whether those two are available, and I have no idea if the Tips are looking at them, this is merely for illustrative purposes). Add those two and Everett immediately becomes the league favorite. But at what cost? Consider the package Everett received for Kyle Beach last season. If we agree that Dan IWanski and Mike-Alexander-turned-into-a-fifth-round-pick cancel one another out, then Beach cost Theriau (at the time a 16-year-old first-round bantam pick) and a future first rounder. Eberle and Teubert are Beach-equivalent players. Getting the two wouldn’t cost double what Beach cost because they’re both gone after this season, whereas Beach still had a year-and-a-half left in the league when acquired. But it would require more than what Lethbridge relenquished for Beach for the Tips to get Eberle and Teubert. Prices are also likely to be inflated because Memorial Cup host Brandon will probably be bidding for top players, too.
And that would be a huge gamble for Everett as I’m not convinced the Tips have the depth of talent in the system to compensate for selling off top assets. If the Tips did indeed shell out for two impact players, it would certainly put a huge dent in Everett’s future.
The wild card here, as it is for every WHL team, is the NCAA. Every season college or college-bound players wind up in the WHL somewhere along the line. We know one (Jordan Schroeder) who has repeatedly been rumored to be headed to Everett. Personally, I think Schroeder has made it clear he won’t be playing here this season. However, I’m sure the Tips have a few other irons in the NCAA or NCAA-bound fire. Land one of those and suddenly the upgrading price tag comes down.
How the Tips should approach their current situation is not clear-cut. Seeing what this group can accomplish as-is and then going hard next season is a choice that makes a lot of sense (I definitely wouldn’t sell this season, however). But opportunity appears to be beckoning, and one can never be sure when opportunity will present itself again. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see whether the Tips decide to grab for it this season,
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One last unrelated note. The live blog is on again for tomorrow’s game at Tri-City. Whether I’ll be able to get the internet video feed is now on a game-by-game basis, but I will be watching tomorrow. Be here 15 minutes before the puck drop to join in the conversation.
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