Here’s my preview for Week 1. We’ll go over the information I find pertinent and then I’ll try to pick out the stars of the game … or the guys you should play in terms of fantasy.
Here’s who I’ll consider a star:
QB 225+ yards and at least 2 TDs
RB 100 total yards and a TD
Receivers 6+ catches, 80+ yards, TD
K 8 total points (2PAT/2FG as the benchmark)
DEF 12 total points (3 sacks; 2 turnovers; 1 return TD as benchmark)
Detroit at Atlanta
Weather: Dome
Prognosis: These are two bad teams. Detroit is going from Mike Martz to Ground Chuck. Look for Kevin Smith to get a healthy number of carries and Jon Kitna to pick his spots with over-the-top tosses to Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. Matt Ryan is going to struggle. He may be decent by Week 8, but until then he’s gonna get diced. Michael Turner will have trouble finding room because teams will put eight in the box. Both defenses will control the flow of the game.
Score Lions 20, Falcons 3
Stars Calvin Johnson, Lions’ D, Jason Hanson
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Weather: Sunny, 83 deg.
Prognosis: Two good teams with great defenses and playoff aspirations go up against each other in this one. Both teams are becoming mirrors of each other as well. Both have young, mobile quarterbacks who aren’t great in the pocket yet; both have stout defenses that are anchored by good line play; both have quick change-of-pace running backs in Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax) and Chris Johnson (Tenn); and both are scraping the bottom of the barrel for wide receivers. The difference: Home field for the Titans.
Score Titans 24, Jaguars 19
Stars Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Josh Scobee, Titans D, Jags D.
NY Jets at Miami
Weather: Possible showers, 83 deg.
Prognosis: This is the Brett Favre Bowl of course. Everybody and their brother is picking the Dolphins in this one … which means the Jets will win. Look for Thomas Jones to grind out tough yards, with Favre having a nice debut with mediocre numbers. Chad Pennington is a great game manager, but he really doesn’t have a strong arm and his receivers are young and not very good. Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are good.
Score Jets 27, Dolphins 13
Stars Thomas Jones, Coles, Mike Nugent, Jets D, Ted Ginn Jr.
Kansas City at New England
Weather: Sunny, 76 deg.
Prognosis: This is the beginning of New England’s cupcake parade to the playoffs. The Chiefs are victim No. 1 … and what a victim. As long as Brodie Croyle is behind center, this is the worst team in football. Of course they draw the Pats in Week 1. Might as well get it over with quickly. Maybe Croyle will get hurt and Damon Huard can take over and make it respectable … you know a 30-point loss.
Score Patriots 45, Chiefs 10
Stars Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan, Benjamin Watson, Pats D, Stephen Gostkowski, Dwayne Bowe
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Weather: Dome
Prognosis: Hurricane Gustav threw a monkey wrench into New Orleans’ plan for a quick start. But now that everybody is off their bandwagon (exactly the opposite of last year’s opener when their bandwagon went careening out of control), I’m liking them even more. Expect this to be higher scoring than anyone thinks with Drew Brees and Jeff Garcia matching touchdown passes.
Score Saints 31, Bucs 20
Stars Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Reggie Bush, Jeff Garcia, Alex Smith
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Weather: Sunny, 80 deg.
Prognosis: I don’t know what to think about either of these teams. The Rams HAVE to be better. Right? The Eagles can’t be as good as everyone is saying. Right? Well at least for one night, a healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook will prevail over a team that just doesn’t know how to win … yet.
Score Eagles 30, Rams 22
Stars Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, LJ Smith, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Eagles D, David Akers, Josh Brown
Houston at Pittsburgh
Weather: Sunny, 77 deg.
Prognosis: Strange game. I feel it’s going to be one of those games that everybody is picking based on what used to be. But I believe these are two teams headed in opposite directions; Houston headed up, Pittsburgh going down. I just don’t like the Steelers this season. The Texans seem like an up-and-coming team with young talent and a number of play-makers on offense and defense. I just don’t think they can win in Pittsburgh … yet.
Score Steelers 21, Texans 16
Stars Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Andre Johnson, Kris Brown, Steelers D
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Weather: Sunny, 81 deg.
Prognosis: The unveiling of Mr. Ocho Cinco will not go well. The Ravens will badger the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson and Cincinnati will have trouble moving the ball. Problem for the Ravens: Joe Flacco will struggle as well. This will be a low-scoring affair with Baltimore’s defense winning the day.
Score Ravens 13, Bengals 7
Stars Ravens D, T.J. Houshmandzadeh
And now for the big 10 a.m. start …
Seattle at Buffalo
Weather: Partly cloudy, 70 deg.
Prognosis: Yes, the Seahawks are bad on the road three time zones away. Yes, the defense disappears outside of Qwest. Yes, the Seahawks are missing two key wide receivers. So chalk it up as a loss, right? But wait … this is the Bills. The Bills who will trot out former Stanford stud Trent Edwards. The Bills who will miss OT Jason Peters. The Bills who … just plain stink. Seahawks defense takes all the offseason talk about them playing poorly on the road and plays angry.
Score Seahawks 26, Bills 9
Stars Matt Hasselbeck, Julius Jones, Courtney Taylor, Seahawks D, Rian Lindell
Check back later for a preview of the late games …
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