Call it the rule of last. Nearly every year since the NFC South was created in 2002, the team that finished last in the division came back to take first the following year. In fact until last season when Atlanta was edged out by Carolina for the division crown, the streak was a perfect 5-5.
The reason I bring this up is because New Orleans finished in the cellar last season. So do I believe the streak will start again? You bet.
Let me tell you why:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Since Drew Brees showed up three years ago, the Saints offense has been one of the best in the NFL. With Deuce McAllister finally retired and Reggie Bush being pushed to the margins, a real running back in Pierre Thomas is taking over in the backfield. Throw in Pro Bowler Marques Colston and up-and-coming WR Lance Moore and this offense has plenty of weapons.
But in the past the defense has been what has held them back. This year the team brought in Gregg Williams to be defensive coordinator and that could turn things around. Williams was the architect of two great defenses in Tennessee in the late ’90s and for the Redskins from 2004-2007. He’s an aggressive play-caller and he can single-handedly turn a defense around. Plan on him transforming the Saints D this year and helping New Orleans win four more games than they did last year, handing them the division crown.
QB: Drew Brees is the No. 1 quarterback on most fantasy boards. I really can’t argue with that, so the question really is, where do you take him overall? Brees threw for 5,069 yards and 34 TDs last season, but he won’t do that again. With an improved defense, Brees and the Saints won’t be throwing as many passes this season, but he’ll still put up plenty of points. Look for him to go 4,600/30, which should be good enough for the first QB taken. But I don’t think it warrants a first-round pick. I’m never a fan of taking quarterbacks that high, but especially this year. If you have a late second pick, though, Brees is a solid pick.
RB: As stated above, Pierre Thomas is the best option here. He’s never done it for a full season, but he’s shown glimpses of greatness in relief over the past two seasons. When McAllister finally ran out of gas last season, Thomas took over and led many fantasy teams to the Super Bowl. Thomas rushed for 625 yards and 9 TDs last season and only started six games — and that was all with Bush around save two games. He also catches passes (31 for 284 last season) and will get all the goal-line carries. He is a high-impact runner, so he’s a bit of an injury risk, but the upside is tremendous. Let somebody else take Reggie Bush. With Thomas around Bush will get less carries and catch less balls. Even if Thomas misses a game, Bush won’t be a full-time player — and the chances are Bush will be the one to miss a game, not Thomas.
WR: Expect big things from Marques Colston this year. He’s got all the tools and he showed down the stretch of last season that he’s still Brees’ favorite target. Colston missed five games and put up a goose-egg in his first game back from injury and still caught 47 passes for 760 yards and five TDs in nine games. The final three games — when Colston caught 22 balls for 306 yards and four scores — really have to make fantasy owners excited. Another receiver will post big numbers here and it will likely be Lance Moore, who caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 scores last season. He won’t do that again with Colston healthy, but Moore’s numbers remained strong when Colston returned in Week 8, so expect somewhere around 60/800/7. Robert Meachem might be able to sneak in some good games, but he could be a great sleeper pick if either Moore or Colston get hurt.
TE: Jeremy Shockey could either catch 70 passes for 700 yards and six TDs or get hurt in Week 2 and limp through the rest of the season. Since the second option is most likely and there’s some many good tight ends, I’d advise owners to skip Shockey.
DEF: This is a sleeper defense. They upgraded with the defensive line with Anthony Hargrove and they got a nice piece in the defensive backfield with Darren Sharper. D-linemen Charles Grant and Will Smith will miss the first four games because of a suspension so that will hurt early, but that just means they’ll be fresh down the stretch. I would consider this a risky pick so take them as your second defense.
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