Seahawks can clinch playoffs Sunday, but need some help

RENTON — Four weeks ago the Seattle Seahawks were on the brink of falling out of the playoff race.

But after winning four straight, and with other playoff contenders stumbling, the Seahawks could clinch an NFC playoff spot Sunday — with two weeks to spare. How quickly things change.

However, a lot has to happen this week for that to happen.

Seattle, at 8-5, currently occupies the NFC’s first wild-card position, besting Minnesota (8-5) based on beating the Vikings head-to-head. The rest of the teams in wild-card contention (Washington, Philadelphia, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Atlanta) are two games back at 6-7 with just three weeks remaining.

The NFL listed five possible combination of results for Seattle to clinch a postseason berth this weekend:

1) The Seahawks win (vs. Cleveland), while Tampa Bay (at St. Louis) and New York (vs. Carolina) both lose or tie.

2) The Seahawks win, while Tampa Bay and Washington (vs. Buffalo) both lose or tie.

The poor conference records of Philadelphia and Atlanta, plus the fact that one of New York, Washington or Philadelphia will win the NFC East, means Seattle in these scenarios would hold the tiebreaker over any team that could still catch the Seahawks in the wild-card standings.

3) The Seahawks win, while Tampa Bay and Atlanta (at Jacksonville) both lose or tie, Minnesota (vs. Chicago) loses, and Green Bay (at Oakland) wins or ties.

In this scenario, there’s enough head-to-head games among teams in the NFC East and NFC North to create future losses for teams chasing Seattle.

4) The Seahawks tie, while Tampa Bay and New York both lose, and Atlanta loses or ties.

5) The Seahawks tie, while Tampa Bay and Washington both lose, and Atlanta and Philadelphia both lose or tie.

Similar to the first two scenarios, except Seattle needs a little more help based on picking up just a half game from the tie.

Got it?

But that’s not the only Seahawks playoff possibility that bears watching. There’s still the slimmest of chances Seattle could overtake Arizona to win the NFC West. However, a lot of things have to go the Seahawks’ way for that to happen. The Seahawks have to win their remaining three games (vs. Cleveland, vs. St. Louis, at Arizona), including that tricky head-to-head season finale on the road against the Cardinals. The Cardinals then have to lose their remaining three games (at Philadelphia, vs. Green Bay, vs. Seattle).

That would leave the teams tied at 11-5, bringing it down to tiebreakers. However:

1) The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, and that would be tied 1-1.

2) The second tiebreaker is division record, which would be tied 4-2.

3) The third tiebreaker is conference record, which would be tied 8-4.

4) The fourth tiebreaker is record against common opponents, which would be tied 9-3.

That brings it to the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory, which is the combined record of the opponents each team beat. Seattle and Arizona would have nine common wins, meaning it would come down to the records of the two unique teams they beat. Seattle’s unique wins are against Dallas (4-8) and Pittsburgh (7-5), while Arizona’s unique wins are against New Orleans (4-8) and Cincinnati (10-3). Therefore, the Seahawks need Dallas and Pittsburgh to be at least three games better than New Orleans and Cincinnati over the final three weeks.

If Seattle and Arizona finish tied in strength of victory, it would bring up the sixth tiebreaker, which is strength of schedule. That adds unique losses to the mix. Seattle’s unique losses against Cincinnati (10-3) and Carolina (13-0) are far better than Arizona’s unique losses to Pittsburgh (7-5) and St. Louis (5-8), so the Seahawks would claim the division title.

It’s an almost impossible sequence of events. FootballOutsiders.com calculates the chances of Seattle winning the division at one-tenth of one percent. But it’s not statistically impossible.

On the other hand, Arizona can clinch the division Sunday if just one of three things happens:

1) Arizona wins or ties against Philadelphia.

2) Seattle loses or ties against Cleveland.

3) Even if Arizona loses and Seattle wins, the Cardinals can clinch the strength-of-victory tiebreaker if New Orleans (vs. Detroit) and Cincinnati (at San Francisco) both win and Dallas (vs. New York Jets) and Pittsburgh (vs. Denver) both lose.

So there’s plenty of reasons for Seahawks supporters to scoreboard watch this week.

Check out Nick Patterson’s Seattle Sidelines blog at http://www.heraldnet.com/seattlesidelines, and follow him on Twitter at @NickHPatterson.