The Seattle Seahawks are one win from securing home-field advantage in the playoffs for the first time in over a decade and setting themselves up for a potential run to the Super Bowl.
To reach that stage, Seattle will need to shake two glaring flaws, beginning with its lackluster offensive showings in first halves. Part of the problem is ball security. Quarterback Sam Darnold was recently voted to the Pro Bowl for the second consecutive season, but he’s turning the ball over at a rate that would require a rare postseason run for the Seahawks to contend for a championship.
Seattle ranks ninth in points per drive but 18th in EPA per play (stats provided by TruMedia). Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has produced a good unit in his first year running the show. But the first halves of games have been a slog for nearly two months. It is not only cause for concern as Seattle (13-3) prepares to rematch the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) with the No. 1 seed on the line, but it is also the type of issue that could send the Seahawks home early regardless of their seed.
Darnold committed two turnovers in Seattle’s 27-10 win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, bringing his season total to a league-high 20 giveaways. He also leads the league in turnover rate (4 percent); those are career highs in both categories.
Against Carolina, Darnold was 18 of 27 for 147 yards with one touchdown and an interception. He was sacked three times and lost a fumble. Coach Mike Macdonald said it wasn’t Darnold’s best day but added that his quarterback “did what we needed him to do to win the game.”
“Can we make some better decisions? Can we clean up some fundamentals? Yeah, absolutely,” Macdonald said. “That goes for everybody.”
Seattle is 5-2 against teams in playoff position. Darnold averaged 235.6 passing yards and 7.5 yards per attempt in those games. But he also had eight touchdowns against 13 turnovers, with an EPA per play average (minus-0.20) that would be in the Geno Smith range over the course of the season. Darnold and the offense have routinely been picked up by the defense and special teams. Seattle’s ability to win a title might hinge on those units doing the heavy lifting in the postseason.
Seven quarterbacks have made it to the Super Bowl with a turnover rate of at least 4 percent in the regular season since 2000.
Kurt Warner, on the 2001 Rams, was the only quarterback operating efficiently despite the high turnover rate. His average would be fourth among quarterbacks in 2025; the others would be well below the league average. Darnold ranks 16th, sandwiched between Michael Penix Jr. and Trevor Lawrence.
Seattle’s defense is tied for the league lead in EPA per play along with the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns. Macdonald’s defense might be dominant enough to carry the Seahawks to a title. What they are attempting to accomplish can be done, but it doesn’t happen often and hasn’t resulted in a Super Bowl victory since 2015.
Turnovers have contributed to Seattle’s offense cooling off in the second half of the season. The dip is most notable in the opening two quarters. From Weeks 1-10, the Seahawks led the league in first-half points per drive (3.15). Since playing the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11, Seattle has been notably less effective on offense in the first half. Sunday’s win over a Panthers team that ranked 23rd in points per drive allowed and 24th in EPA per play was more of the same.
From Week 11 through Week 17, Seattle ranks 28th in points per drive in first halves, ahead of only the Vikings, Jets, Raiders and Saints. The Seahawks are 7-1 in that stretch because of elite defense, timely special teams plays — including near-perfection from kicker Jason Myers — and an offense that ranks sixth in points per drive and ninth in EPA per play in the second half.
Two questions come to mind as Seattle heads into its biggest game of the regular season: What’s going on? And is it fixable?
“It’s hard to attribute it to one thing,” Macdonald said. If it were just one thing, he added, “We would have probably found a solution by now.”
Explosive plays might be a good starting point. There’s a strong correlation between generating explosives and scoring points, which is why coordinators typically structure their defensive schemes to prioritize limiting big plays. The Seahawks have had issues early in games producing explosive plays, particularly when the ball isn’t in the hands of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
When Seattle can create explosive plays with some of its secondary playmakers, points tend to follow. On the opening drive against the Rams in Week 16, Ken Walker III gained 46 yards on a screen pass, setting up Zach Charbonnet’s touchdown run a few plays later. They didn’t get another explosive play until Walker ran for 17 yards on third-and-16. That drive would have likely ended in points had receiver Cooper Kupp not fumbled in the red zone after gaining 17 yards — another explosive — just before halftime.
Seattle’s only scoring drive in the first half against the Panthers came on a series in which Charbonnet rushed for 25 yards on third-and-15. His run put Seattle at midfield, and the offense needed only a couple of completions to get in field goal range.
In the second half against the Rams, Walker’s 55-yard touchdown run gave Seattle a 14-13 lead. Darnold had drives in which he completed passes of 20 and 27 yards to Smith-Njigba, but those series ended in interceptions. The game-tying scoring drive was the result of a two-play, 57-yard sequence. Darnold had two explosive plays on the game-winning drive in overtime.
On Sunday, Seattle needed fewer than 30 yards to reach the end zone, so explosives weren’t as essential (though there were some on those touchdown drives, including two on receptions by tight end AJ Barner). There were two second-half drives in which Seattle went the length of the field to reach the red zone. Charbonnet had a long run on the first one — Darnold then threw an interception — and Smith-Njigba had an 18-yard catch on the other (along with a drive-extending face mask penalty on Carolina).
Seattle ranks 25th in explosive play rate in the first half since Week 11. Some of this should be expected, given Smith-Njigba’s hot start to the season. Teams are working hard to keep Smith-Njigba from burning their safeties and getting one-on-one coverage deep down the field against their cornerbacks.
In theory, the acquisition of Rashid Shaheed should have made this a non-issue. Shaheed has come on strong in the last month, making contributions as a runner, receiver and returner. But he’s starting slow like the rest of the offense. Since arriving in Week 10, Shaheed has just one explosive play in the first half (it led to a field goal before the half against Atlanta). He is now in concussion protocol, and his absence in Week 18 would be a big loss for a Seattle offense that needs his playmaking.
The other path to producing explosives without relying on Smith-Njigba is the run game, which has come alive the past two weeks after a dud against the Colts. Walker rushed for 100 yards in Week 16, and Charbonnet rushed for 110 on Sunday. It is the first time since 2022 that Seattle has had 100-yard rushers in consecutive games.
The season-defining question for the Seahawks: Can they sustain this against the 49ers and into the playoffs? A secondary question: Should Seattle start riding the hot hand instead of splitting carries?
On Sunday, Walker had just 51 yards on 18 attempts, with just one first down. Charbonnet’s stats in Walker’s two 100-yard games this year — 24 carries, 42 yards, three first downs — are even worse. An efficient, productive day by one running back shouldn’t always be paired with inefficiency by the other. Against playoff teams, offensive balance will be harder to come by if one of the guys touching the ball is basically burning a down with inefficient carries.
On Monday, Macdonald was asked about riding the hot hand if it becomes clear one guy is proving more effective at moving the chains on the ground.
“The way the season has gone, we have some flexibility as games start to declare, and that includes what runner is good at what that day or how it’s going,” Macdonald said.
He added that coaches don’t discuss whether to ride the hot hand as much as they determine which schemes they want to double-down on and which formations they’d like to utilize. Charbonnet and Walker have different styles, so on any given day, one runner might be more equipped to have a big day, depending on the opponent.
Seattle’s next opponent, San Francisco, has one of the league’s worst defenses by EPA per play. A clean game from Darnold and a fast start from the offense would go a long way toward determining whether the Seahawks can make a deep playoff push and ensure the road to Super Bowl LX goes through Lumen Field.
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