So who’s the next Cardinals? DRI says it may be the Lions

Seemingly overnight, the Arizona Cardinals went from doormats to Super Bowl participants with little hint of breakthrough potential.

So who’s the next NFL team on the rise?

If the Draft Ratings Index has something to say about it, that team may well be the lowly Detroit Lions.

The Draft Ratings Index (DRI) was devised by The Herald in 2005 as a way of grading the draft success of NFL teams over five-year periods. The Cardinals annually ranked high in the DRI, and their ability to build through the draft culminated in an appearance in Super Bowl XLIII.

The Lions are a long, long way from Super Bowl contender, but this year’s DRI shows that they’re actually on the right path. The Lions DRI total of 2.78 ranks second in the league, trailing only the New York Giants’ score of 3.28.

So what, exactly, is the DRI?

The scaling system assigns an objective grade to every player drafted since 2004, based on that player’s contributions. One point is awarded for players who are still in the league, and another for players who are still with the team that drafted them. A third point is awarded for players who have played in at least half their drafting team’s games since coming into the league, and a fourth for starting at least half that team’s games. A fifth point is awarded for being a current NFL starter, while Pro Bowlers get as many as six total points.

The system ranks players from zero points (those drafted players who are no longer in the league) to six points (for a player who has developed into a Pro Bowler for the team that drafted him).

Using the hometown Seattle Seahawks as an example, quarterback David Greene, a third-round pick in the 2005 draft who is no longer in the NFL, is worth zero points. Pro Bowl linebacker Lofa Tatupu is worth six. Most players fall somewhere in between, like former Seahawks linebacker Niko Koutouvides (two points) and defensive tackle Brandon Mebane (five points).

Each team’s total points are then divided by the number of players selected in the past five drafts, giving an average grade for each draft pick.

The Seahawks, who have nine recent draft picks in the starting lineup — only Indianapolis (12), San Diego (10) and Jacksonville (10) have more — have an average DRI grade of 2.59. That means, according to the DRI scale, the Seahawks rank sixth in the NFL in draft productivity since 2004 (see chart).

The Giants have been the league’s most successful team during that span, which is probably the biggest reason why they’ve won a Super Bowl trophy and posted the NFC’s best record in back-to-back seasons.

Twenty-four of the Giants’ 29 draft picks since 2004 are still on the team, while nine of them are in the starting lineup. Just four — three of which came in the final two rounds of the ‘04 draft — are out of the league. (By comparison, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Tennessee have seen more than a dozen former picks fail right out of the league.)

Indianapolis, with a league-high 13 starters coming from the past five drafts, has also built a perennial contender through recent drafts. The Colts’ DRI score of 2.75 over the past five drafts ranks third in the league, behind the Giants and Detroit (2.78). The same can be said for San Diego, which ranks fourth at 2.68.

At the bottom of the DRI list are teams like Cincinnati (2.02), New England (1.95), Pittsburgh (1.93), Philadelphia (1.92) and Tampa Bay (1.894).

The Steelers and Patriots have relied on key free-agent signings (like Pittsburgh’s James Harrison), trades (like New England’s deals for Randy Moss and Wes Welker) and longtime veterans to stay competitive. The Bengals and Buccaneers, meanwhile, have fallen flat on their face in large part because of poor drafts.

Bad drafts played a major role in costing Tampa Bay’s Jon Gruden and Denver’s Mike Shanahan their jobs, while Philadelphia’s Andy Reid and Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis could be next in line.

Atlanta (ranked eighth in the DRI), Carolina (11th) and Baltimore (12th) have had some good drafts that have allowed them to get competitive rather quickly. The same can be said for the Cardinals, who have ranked among the top three in the past four DRIs but fell to fifth this year.

And then there’s Detroit. While the Lions had some disastrous drafts earlier this decade, Detroit has gotten some productivity out of recent selections — resulting in the league’s second-best DRI score of 2.78 this year.

Due in large part to a lack of veteran talent, the Lions have relied on recent picks like offensive lineman Gosder Cherlius, running back Kevin Smith, wide receiver Calvin Johnson, safety Gerald Alexander and linebackers Ernie Sims and Alex Lewis to provide immediate help.

Time will tell whether the Lions’ productive recent picks will develop into longtime starters and Pro Bowlers.

But as the DRI has shown with the Cardinals, quietly productive drafts can eventually lead to surprise Super Bowl appearances.