Why Seahawks’ Mike Macdonald went for 2 in Detroit

The Seahawks — and their fans — are still getting to know Mike Macdonald.

They learned more about the new coach Monday night, through a decision he made in the second half of Seattle’s 42-29 loss at the Detroit Lions.

It left folks asking questions about what happened.

The NFL’s youngest coach and his staff decided to attempt a two-point conversion while down 28-20 late in the third quarter at Ford Field. That is, rather than kick the customary extra point to trail 28-21 with 18 minutes left in the game.

It represented Macdonald’s lean on an analytics-based approach to game management.

Macdonald, 37, has a Seahawks research analyst, Brian Eayrs, in the coaches’ booth during games as his analytics advisor. Eayrs has been crunching numbers and doing analytics reviews of game situations for Macdonald for half a year, since soon after the team hired Macdonald to replace Pete Carroll as coach Feb. 1.

The two-point play in Detroit also raised questions about how the league’s officiating department handled the play, from NFL headquarters in New York to those officiating the game on the field in Detroit.

The second of Kenneth Walker’s three touchdown runs got the Seahawks within eight points of the Lions with 3 minutes left in the third quarter. On the two-point play, Smith threw a pass into the left sideline of the end zone just inside the goal-line to DK Metcalf. The wide receiver made a remarkably athletic play to lean away from Detroit cornerback Carlton Davis into the sideline and catch the pass.

ESPN’s replays from different angles showed the national television audience Metcalf caught the pass with his knee appearing to land just inside the sideline boundary in the end zone. The toes of his cleats on his second, back foot definitely dragged into the turf, well in bounds.

It appeared upon extensive review to be two feet inbounds, a legal catch for two points. Line judge Rusty Baynes saw it differently.

The Lions went on two score two more touchdowns to the Seahawks’ one, pulling away in the end for the 13-point victory.

NFL replay review

All two-point conversion tries, whether successful or not, are subject to the league’s officiating department reviewing them with video replay. That is per Rule 15, article 2(d) of the NFL rule book. That rule states “only the Replay Official or the Senior Vice President of Officiating or his or her designee may initiate a review” of a two-point play.

Macdonald did not use his coach’s challenge on the play. It appeared he was waiting for a replay review from NFL officials.

This season the league has had its booth replay official at games to do a quick review of replays to determine whether to stop the game and initiate a fuller replay review of close plays at NFL headquarters in New York. If they did that on the two-point try Monday night, booth replay official Gerald Frye inside Ford Field presumably did not see enough to stop the game for a fuller review.

In Detroit following the game Monday night, Macdonald was asked if he thought Metcalf caught the two-point pass inbounds.

“Looked like it initially,” Macdonald said. “It’s tough. It’s moving fast and then the explanation I got was that they were looking at it, the booth was looking at it. And they confirmed that it was incomplete. So that’s what happened.”

Tuesday on his weekly day-after-game show on KIRO-AM radio, Macdonald explained why he didn’t challenge the two-point-play ruling.

“What was going through my mind was we didn’t have a clear look at it from up top, and they were reviewing it in the booth,” Macdonald said.

“In hindsight, you force the issue a little more, I guess.”

Mike Macdonald and analytics

Going for two there set Seattle up for chasing points the rest of the game.

Of course, the way the Seahawks’ depleted defense, which was missing six injured starters, could not stop quarterback Jared Goff as the Lions’ offense to scored 42 points, Macdonald’s team was chasing all of Monday night. The Lions seized a 21-7 lead in the second quarter.

In Detroit after the game, Macdonald said he went for two trying to win the game in regulation.

“We were going to need another score regardless,” he said late Monday night, “so make it a six-point game.”

He spoke more Tuesday on KIRO radio of his reasoning for going for two when he did.

“Without going through all the numbers, it does favor going for two,” Macdonald said of the situation in Detroit. “Just play it out, at some point (if) you get two opportunities to get a two-point conversion, (it) about evens out.”

Macdonald meant his and Eayrs’ analytics studies show one out of every two NFL two-point conversions succeeds.

The average conversion rate in the NFL from 2015-22, for instance, was 48%. That is per an ESPN story in September 2023 on teams going for two down eight points.

Macdonald explained he wanted to win the game in regulation. By late in the third quarter he didn’t want to keep matching the Lions with sevens into a possible overtime.

“If you get the first one, now you just need the touchdown (with the standard extra-point kick) and that’s a path to win the game in (regulation),” Macadonald said Tuesday, hours after the team landed home at 4:30 a.m.

“If you only (make) one (of the possible two two-point tries), now you’re looking at going to overtime — and now you’re still at a 50-50 proposition about winning the game.”