BAGHDAD — The coming year will test Iraq’s fledgling democracy, with two key events looming as possible tipping points: the pullout of U.S. forces from the country’s cities, and elections in January and December.

The troop withdrawal is pivotal. As Iraq takes charge of its security from the Americans, the country’s civil war might reignite, or the gains of the U.S. military “surge” could prove lasting.

Likewise, local elections scheduled for Jan. 31 and a national vote in December to select the next government will go a long way toward clarifying Iraq’s political order: whether Iraq’s democracy matures, evolves into an authoritarian regime or spurs the country’s breakup into Shiite Muslim, Sunni Arab and Kurdish ministates.

U.S. officials hope the elections will help resolve myriad political disputes — in contrast to January 2005, when a Sunni boycott created local and national governments with disproportionate Shiite and Kurdish representation, pushing Iraq farther along the path to civil war.

“If we get through these elections and they turn out to be legitimate, I feel that that will really lead us out of this fragile stage into something that is more stable,” Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the senior American commander in Iraq, told reporters recently.