OLYMPIA – Whatever happens with the nip-and-tuck White House battle nationally, Democrats are counting on anger over the Iraq war and President Bush’s presidency to lift them to a virtual sweep of the elections in Washington state on Tuesday.
Republicans concede that Democrats are hyped up by the presidential showdown, but insist that talk of a Democratic landslide is off the mark. The major races are all competitive, right down to the wire, the GOP insists.
One thing is clear: Voters are engaged. It’s possible the turnout could bring a record number of voters, whipped up by races for the state’s 11 electoral votes, the governor’s mansion and a prized Senate seat.
The ballot is further enlivened by some bare-knuckles statewide races, five ballot measures, two highly competitive congressional races and the race for control of the Legislature.
“There is an intensity among the Democrats I have never seen in this state,” said Lance LeLoup, a political scientist at Washington State University. “The Democratic base is completely engaged, and the Republicans have tried to increase their effort, too. The projected turnout is astounding.”
Democratic state Chairman Paul Berendt said “anti-war fever” and seething anger toward President Bush have given a lift to virtually every Democratic candidate in the state.
“We’re on offense, and we have the wind at our back,” he said. “There’s definitely a Democratic tide running.”
GOP Chairman Chris Vance readily concedes that “Democrats are overwhelmed with hatred of President Bush,” but said plenty of voters don’t want to switch commanders in chief during a war.
Republicans, too, are unusually well organized and financed, have signed up 90,000 new voters and planned a massive get-out-the-vote drive this weekend, rolling on to Tuesday, he said.
“I’m not predicting a Republican sweep, but all the top races are close,” Vance said. “From Day 1, this election has been about change.”
A look at the top action:
Governor
Christine Gregoire, 57, the three-term Democratic attorney general, is taking on Dino Rossi, 45, the Republican former state Senate budget leader. The winner takes over in January. Gov. Gary Locke is retiring after two terms.
Republicans haven’t won the governor’s mansion since John Spellman 24 years ago, but they believe Rossi has the charisma and the right mainstream message to break through, even if other races are going Democratic.
“We have the momentum. It is going to happen,” said a chipper Rossi.
Late polls showed the race tightening, and Rossi’s internal poll had him in a virtual tie.
Gregoire, likewise upbeat, said she remained “cautiously optimistic.”
Both candidates have waged a furious ad blitz, each aided by out-of-state contributions and allies.
Both eclipsed the old fund-raising record set by Locke four years ago. By Thursday, Gregoire had raised over $6 million, with significant support coming from outside the state, including trial lawyers and EMILY’s List donors who support abortion rights. Rossi had collected $5.8 million.
Independent groups also spent money on the race, including $2.4 million from Democratic governors and $1.7 million from Republican governors.
Ruth Bennett is running on the Libertarian ticket.
The White House
Washington’s hasn’t gone Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Democrat John Kerry hopes to keep it that way.
The Bush-Cheney campaign had the state on its battleground list for most of the year and advertised heavily for months. But the campaign scaled back recently to shift resources elsewhere.
Polls show Kerry with a steady, if slim, lead, and most Electoral College maps have designated Washington a blue state. Bush partisans said a late surge could still put the state back in play.
Senate
Two-term Democratic Sen. Patty Murray also was considered vulnerable, but her GOP challenger, U.S. Rep. George Nethercutt, had difficulty getting traction.
Polls show a comfortable lead for Murray, 54, who won her seat in 1992. Nethercutt, 60, who knocked off then-Speaker Tom Foley in the 5th Congressional District 10 years ago, enjoyed a late surge of contributions and a presidential visit, and still hopes for a late lift.
Congress
Nethercutt’s departure from the 5th District and Jennifer Dunn’s retirement in the 8th Congressional District touched off unusually competitive House races.
A victory in either district would be a net gain for the Democrats, who currently have a 6-3 edge in the state delegation.
State Legislature
Democrats are hoping to pick up control of both chambers, building on their 52-46 edge in the House and taking over the Senate, where Republicans now run the show with a slim 25-24 majority. Republicans agree that races in a few swing districts will be pivotal.
Other state offices
Gregoire’s departure as attorney general touched off a battle between Democrat Deborah Senn, the former state insurance commissioner, and Republican Rob McKenna, a King County councilman.
Republicans are defending their only two statewide elected officials, Secretary of State Sam Reed and Land Commissioner Doug Sutherland.
Incumbent Democrats are heavily favored for lieutenant governor, treasurer, auditor and insurance commissioner.
Another tight race pits the current state superintendent of schools, Terry Bergeson, and her immediate predecessor, Judith Billings.
Ballot measures
Voters face proposals for both a tax cut and a tax increase. Initiative 892, from Tim Eyman’s initiative factory, would allow non-Indian businesses to operate electronic slot machines, with tax proceeds earmarked for state property tax cuts.
I-884 would boost the state sales tax by 1 cent on the dollar and raise an estimated $1 billion a year for education.
Other measures would uphold the Legislature’s decision to allow formation of a limited number of charter schools, shift to a “top-two” primary election system, and promote cleanup of the Hanford nuclear site.
State Supreme Court
Two positions on the state Supreme Court have generated spirited competition.
One, for an open seat, pits Appeals Court Judge Mary Kay Becker and Olympia attorney James Johnson.
In the other race, Justice Richard Sanders faces former Pierce County Superior Court Judge Terry Sebring.
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