Change in Cuba after Fidel Castro likely to come slowly

WASHINGTON — Those hoping for a new U.S. policy toward Cuba have waited nearly 50 years for President Fidel Castro to voluntarily step down. But they will have to wait at least one more year, after President Bush leaves office, to see any possibility of change in the hard-line U.S. position that has transcended nine administrations.

Castro, 81, announced Tuesday he is stepping down as Cuba’s president, ending his half-century rule.

Bush and his top advisers made clear Tuesday that they do not intend to relax the trade sanctions and other policies aimed at isolating the Cuban government. The president called on Cuba to transition to democracy.

“This transition ought to lead to free and fair elections — and I mean free and I mean fair, not these kind of staged elections that the Castro brothers try to foist off as being true democracy,” Bush said.

“The question is not so much ‘When is the U.S. going to change its policy?’ The question is when Cuba will change its policy,” said Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, a co-chairman of a government commission on Cuba. “Fidel Castro is still running the show as long as he is alive.”

In their comments Tuesday, each of the top three presidential contenders — Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, and Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain — offered little sign that they will break with the pillars of existing policy.

And in Cuba, many are looking to his brother and successor, Raul, to let more people open businesses, own homes and even travel abroad. But it will probably fall to a new generation of leaders to ultimately fulfill or frustrate their dreams of prosperity.

During his 11/2 years as acting president, 76-year-old Raul Castro has hinted at reform but made few major changes. And while hoping that Raul and his likely No. 2, Carlos Lage, will advocate for change, they wonder how that will fly with Fidel, who stepped down but isn’t going away.

“There has to be some change, more freedom with Raul,” said Andres, who like many Cubans wouldn’t give his last name for fear of reprisal when talking about the Castro brothers. “The other one always nipped that off at the bud.”

In Miami, there was none of the massive street demonstrations that have erupted here over other events in Cuba. While Castro’s official exit after nearly 50 years in power held the aura of history, many here viewed it as having few, if any, immediate consequences and the reaction to the long-anticipated end of Castro’s reign was muted.

Osvaldo Perez, 72, spent a few minutes shouting “Libertad! Libertad!” at passing traffic, but wasn’t convinced himself.

“Where are the people?” he asked.

“I was expecting more people here,” said Richard Valdes, 23, a construction worker whose father came from Cuba, and recalled the reaction to rumors two years ago that Castro had died. “When they said he was dead, it was really big here. But I don’t think this news will really change anything.”

Decades of Castro

Some key events in Cuba’s history under Fidel Castro:

Jan. 1, 1959: Dictator Fulgencio Batista flees Cuba and Fidel Castro’s rebels take power.

February 1960: Soviet Deputy Prime Minister Anastas Mikoyan visits Cuba, signs sugar and oil deals, first of many pacts over next 30 years.

June 1960: Cuba nationalizes U.S.-owned oil refineries after they refuse to process Soviet oil. Nearly all other U.S. businesses expropriated by October.

October 1960: Washington bans exports to Cuba other than food and medicine.

April 16, 1961: Castro declares Cuba a socialist state.

April 17, 1961: 1,297 Cuban exiles supported by CIA invade at Bay of Pigs; attack collapses two days later.

Feb, 7, 1962: Washington bans all Cuban imports.

October 1962: President Kennedy orders blockade of Cuba to force removal of Soviet nuclear-armed missiles; Soviets agree within days and Kennedy agrees privately not to invade Cuba.

March 1968: Castro’s government takes over almost all private businesses other than small farms.

April 1980: Refugee crisis starts at Mariel port as Cuba says anyone can leave; about 125,000 Cubans flee by end of September.

December 1991: Collapse of Soviet Union ends extensive aid and trade for Cuba; economic output plunges 35 percent by 1994.

August 1994: Castro declares he will not stop Cubans trying to leave; about 40,000 take to sea heading for United States. Expanded U.S.-Cuba migration agreement signed in September.

October 1997: Castro reaffirms younger brother, Raul Castro, as successor.

June 23, 2001: Castro faints briefly giving speech in searing sun, forcing many Cubans for first time to accept his eventual mortality.

Dec. 16, 2001: Shipments of corn and chicken arrive, the first direct U.S. food sales to Cuba in nearly 40 years.

March 18, 2003: Cuba cracks down on dissidents it alleges work with U.S.; 75 sentenced to prison.

Oct. 20, 2004: Castro trips and falls after speech, shattering left kneecap and breaking right arm.

July 27, 2006: Castro’s final personal appearance as president is a four-hour Revolution Day speech.

July 31, 2006: Castro temporarily cedes power to brother to recover from operation for gastrointestinal bleeding.

Dec. 18, 2007: Castro publishes essay saying he doesn’t intend to cling to power forever, will not “obstruct the path of younger people.”

Jan. 20, 2008: Castro re-elected to parliament, leaving open possibility could remain as president.

Tuesday: Castro resigns as president, apparently will remain in parliament.

Associated Press

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