The next major earthquake on California’s Hayward Fault — inevitable anytime now, experts say — will be the San Francisco Bay Area’s own Hurricane Katrina, affecting more than 5 million people, causing losses to homes and businesses of at least $165 billion and total economic losses of more than $1.5 trillion.

If major fires break out — think 1906 in San Francisco — the total losses would be far higher, they said.

The analysis came from the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif., from Risk Management Solutions, a firm in Newark, Calif., and from the Association of Bay Area Governments.