EVERETT — A key data point related to new coronavirus cases is again on the decline in Snohomish County, giving the area’s top public health official cause for cautious optimism.
The case rate per 100,000 residents over a two-week period has dropped from 95 as of Aug. 1 to 73.7 as of Saturday, according to the Snohomish Health District.
“That’s good news,” Dr. Chris Spitters, the district’s health officer, said in a Tuesday media briefing. “It’s encouraging — makes me cautiously optimistic about where things are going.”
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The figure peaked at nearly 130 in the spring and recently hit another high point of almost 100 in late July.
But the two-week rolling average is still well above 25 cases per 100,000 residents, which was the threshold the county couldn’t exceed to progress to the second phase of Gov. Jay Inslee’s reopening plan for the state in June.
Spitters hailed the positive trend with some other caveats.
In the past six weeks, local hospitals have seen an uptick in COVID-19 cases, he said.
New cases are also creeping up among people over 60, who face a greater risk of severe illness or death from the disease.
And while the transmission rate appears to be falling, it still suggests that reconvening school in local classrooms this fall is relatively risky, Spitters said.
“Hopefully sustained declines over time will continue to bring that down,” he said. “But we really want to see how that plays out over the next few weeks to make sure we really are seeing true and sustained decreases and that it’s not a transient observation or explained by something other than a decrease in transmission.”
It’s estimated between 1 in 200 and 1 in 500 people in Snohomish County are contagious with COVID-19, Spitters said. So if hundreds of students and staff gather in a single building now, there are likely to be cases “on day one,” he said.
Many of the county’s school districts announced plans for 100% remote learning this fall after Spitters last month recommended against in-person education.
Residents can do their part to further reduce transmission by wearing face coverings that have multiple layers of cotton or cotton blend material, Spitters said.
Other alternatives, including bandanas or gaiters or buffs that fully encircle one’s neck, might offer little protection. That’s according to a recent study, by Duke University researchers, which Spitters cited during the briefing.
The study found that neck fleece broke up large respiratory droplets into small droplets that remained airborne longer — and that wearing such a garment could actually be riskier than wearing no mask at all.
“Make sure you’re using a good quality, multiple-ply cloth face covering,” Spitters said. “Wear it continuously when around others and wear it correctly. That means fully covering both your nose and your mouth at all times that you wear the mask.”
Rachel Riley: 425-339-3465; rriley@heraldnet.com. Twitter: @rachel_m_riley.
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