GOP has a built-in advantage in fight for US House

WASHINGTON — Even if Democrats recruit great candidates, raise gobs of money and run smart campaigns, they face an uphill fight to retake control of the House in this year’s congressional elections, regardless of the political climate in November.

The reason? Republican strategists spent years developing a plan to take advantage of the 2010 census, first by winning key state legislatures and then redrawing House districts to tilt the playing field in their favor.

In states like Ohio, Michigan and North Carolina, Republicans were able to shape congressional maps to pack as many Democratic voters as possible into the fewest House districts. The process, called gerrymandering, left fertile ground elsewhere in each state to spread Republican voters among more districts, increasing the GOP’s chances of winning more seats.

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

Geography helped, too, in some states. Democratic voters are more likely to live in densely populated urban areas, making it easier to pack them into fewer districts.

The first payoff came in 2012, when Republicans kept control of the House despite Democratic support that swept President Barack Obama to a second term. The next payoff is likely to come this fall.

Gerrymandering has a long history in the United States, pursued enthusiastically by both Democrats and Republicans. But the GOP’s success at it this decade has been historic: In 2012, Republicans achieved a 33-seat majority in the House, even though GOP candidates as a group got 1.4 million fewer votes than their Democratic opponents.

It was only the second time since World War II that the party receiving the most votes failed to win a majority of House seats, according to statistics compiled by the House Clerk. Democrats gained eight seats but were still a minority.

“The fact that Republicans controlled redistricting (after 2010) meant that they were able to build up a wall, stopping a lot of the tide from running out,” said Justin Levitt, a law professor and redistricting expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles. “They were able to shore up a lot of the districts that had been won by, in many cases, tea party freshmen or other Republican freshmen.”

The Republicans’ advantage will fade as the decade wears on and the population changes. In the meantime, Democrats control the White House and the Senate, while Republicans control the House, giving the GOP powerful leverage to block Obama’s second-term agenda.

How did Republicans gain their advantage? It all started with the party’s sweeping victories in 2010 and a plan called REDMAP.

The 2010 election was a disaster for Democrats. Republicans picked up 63 seats to win control of the House. They also gained seats in the Senate, though Democrats kept a majority.

Perhaps more important, Republicans won control of state legislatures in crucial states, giving the party the edge that is still paying dividends.

Every 10 years following the national census, states redraw the boundaries of House districts to account for population changes. Some states gain seats and others lose, so the overall total remains 435. In most states, the legislature and the governor draw up the new districts, which is why political parties pay special attention to elections at the start of each decade.

“I think Democrats made a terrible mistake. They did not put nearly enough attention or resources into legislative races at the state level,” said Matt Bennett, a former aide to President Bill Clinton. “A bunch of these legislatures slipped by very narrow margins, and some of them flipped for the first time since Reconstruction in the South.”

For Republicans, it was a combination of luck and planning. The political winds were in their favor, but they also had been plotting for years to take full advantage of redistricting.

REDMAP, which stands for Redistricting Majority Project, called for targeting races in states that were expected to gain or lose congressional seats. GOP strategists reasoned that redistricting could have a greater impact in these states because there would have to be more changes to district boundaries, said Chris Jankowski, former president of the Republican State Leadership Committee.

Republicans spent more than $30 million through REDMAP to help elect legislative majorities in states such as Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Jankowski said.

“We’re not talking about 2-month-long broadcast buys on network TV that never stop, like you see in a U.S. Senate battle,” Jankowski said. “We’re talking about cable, radio, mail, ground game — very basic stuff.”

Before the 2010 election, the GOP had majorities in 36 state legislative bodies. Afterward, the party controlled 56, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. In almost half the states, Republicans won control of the entire redistricting process.

To help analyze voting patterns in congressional districts, The Associated Press divided the votes from the 2012 presidential election into all 435 House districts.

Since Obama got the most votes, you might think he won the most congressional districts. But he didn’t.

Nationally, Obama received nearly 5 million more votes than Republican Mitt Romney. But in some states, large numbers of Obama’s votes were packed into heavily Democratic congressional districts. As a result, Romney won in 17 more House districts than Obama.

Independent experts give Democrats little chance to retake the House this year. Even beyond Republicans’ redistricting advantage, the party of the president usually loses seats in Congress during midterm elections.

Rep. Steve Israel of New York, who is in charge of the House Democrats’ campaign operation, rejects arguments that Democrats can’t do it, regardless of the map. Jankowski, on the other hand, expects Republican candidates to continue enjoying the fruits of redistricting.

Still, Jankowski notes that people move and populations change. As the decade wears on, the political benefits will diminish and another redistricting battle will loom.

“It has a shelf life to it and it’s usually not the full 10 years,” Jankowski said. “That’s the reason we have a census every 10 years.”

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

(City of Everett)
Everett’s possible new stadium has a possible price tag

City staff said a stadium could be built for $82 million, lower than previous estimates. Bonds and private investment would pay for most of it.

Jennifer Humelo, right, hugs Art Cass outside of Full Life Care Snohomish County on Wednesday, May 28, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
‘I’ll lose everything’: Snohomish County’s only adult day health center to close

Full Life Care in Everett, which supports adults with disabilities, will shut its doors July 19 due to state funding challenges.

The age of bridge 503 that spans Swamp Creek can be seen in its timber supports and metal pipes on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, in Lynnwood, Washington. The bridge is set to be replaced by the county in 2025. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Snohomish County report: 10 bridges set for repairs, replacement

An annual report the county released May 22 details the condition of local bridges and future maintenance they may require.

The Edmonds City Council gathers to discuss annexing into South County Fire on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Community group presents vision for Edmonds’ fiscal future

Members from Keep Edmonds Vibrant suggested the council focus on revenue generation and a levy lid lift to address its budget crisis.

Cars drive along Cathcart Way next to the site of the proposed Eastview Village development that borders Little Cedars Elementary on Wednesday, May 7, 2025 in unincorporated Snohomish, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Former engineer: Snohomish County rushed plans for Eastview development

David Irwin cited red flags from the developers. After he resigned, the county approved the development that’s now stalled with an appeal

People listen as the Marysville School Board votes to close an elementary and a middle school in the 2025-26 school year while reconfiguring the district’s elementary schools to a K-6 model on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 in Marysville, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Marysville schools audit shows some improvement

Even though the district still faces serious financial problems, the findings are a positive change over last year, auditors said.

Outside of the Madrona School on Monday, Aug. 26, 2024 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Sewer district notifies Edmonds schools of intent to sue

The letter of intent alleges the school district has failed to address long-standing “water pollution issues” at Madrona K-8 School.

Kim Crane talks about a handful of origami items on display inside her showroom on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025, in Snohomish, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Crease is the word: Origami fans flock to online paper store

Kim’s Crane in Snohomish has been supplying paper crafters with paper, books and kits since 1995.

Providence Regional Medical Center Everett. (Olivia Vanni/The Herald)
Providence Everett plans to reduce certified nursing assistants

Nursing assistants at Providence Regional Medical Center Everett have until Thursday to accept a voluntary severance package.

A firefighting helicopter carries a bucket of water from a nearby river to the Bolt Creek Fire on Saturday, Sep. 10, 2022, on U.S. 2 near Index, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Snohomish County property owners can prepare for wildfire season

Clean your roofs, gutters and flammable material while completing a 5-foot-buffer around your house.

Nedra Vranish, left, and Karen Thordarson, right browse colorful glass flowers at Fuse4U during Sorticulture on Friday, June 7, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett’s Sorticulture festival starts Friday

Festivities will include art classes, garden vendors and live music.

Logo for news use featuring Snohomish County, Washington. 220118
11-year-old, teen injured in Snohomish County shooting

The 11-year-old is in critical condition, the sheriff’s office said. Investigators believe the shooting was gang related.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.