Health district: 1,100 already may be infected in 2 counties

EVERETT — Modeling estimates issued this week by the Snohomish Health District indicate 1,100 people in King and Snohomish counties might already be infected with the new coronavirus, and the number of such cases could double every five to seven days.

At those rates, the number of infected people in the two counties could grow anywhere from 35,200 to 140,800 in 35 days.

The figures, included in updated guidance the health department provided to clinicians Monday, differ sharply from the number of confirmed cases reported by both counties. As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, King County had 234 confirmed cases while Snohomish County reported 75 confirmed cases, with another 82 suspected.

Experts say the number of confirmed cases is expected to rise sharply in coming days and weeks as the number of people getting tested grows. A local health official said Tuesday that the outbreak will likely peak in one or two months, then ease up in three or four months.

At a press conference Tuesday, Gov. Jay Inslee discussed the potential spread of the virus assuming 1,000 people already are infected.

“If you do the math, it gets very disturbing,” Inslee said.

When asked about the potential number of deaths in these scenarios, Inslee said it could be high. He said World Health Organization experts estimate the mortality rate is 3.4%. When applied to 64,000, it could be 1,900 deaths in Washington, in one week, he said. As of 4:45 p.m. Wednesday, 30 people had died from the virus statewide, 26 of those in King County and three in Snohomish.

The health district notice also advised providers that there are no restrictions on who can be tested, that commercial testing is becoming widely available and that providers may test any patient with symptoms consistent with COVID-19, including fever, cough and shortness of breath. The new guidance follows widespread complaints from the public and some elected officials about the government’s slow response and a shortage of tests needed to track the virus. As of Wednesday afternoon, 217 had been tested in Snohomish County.

Many facilities continue to report high patient loads, high demands for testing, limited capacity to evaluate patients in the absence of airborne isolation rooms and diminishing stockpiles of protective equipment, according to the health district. Caregivers were advised to continue to triage and treat patients by telephone to avoid overwhelming already-stressed health care facilities.

The health district advised priority for testing be given to pregnant women; health care and public safety workers; patients with underlying health conditions; severe lower respiratory illness or worsening symptoms; those 60 or older; and anyone involved in an illness cluster in facilities such as schools, hospitals, shelters, care centers and corrections facilities, where outbreaks might be more difficult to contain. It also asked to be notified of suspected cases involving health care and public safety workers and any cluster illnesses associated with a facility or group. Testing for those and for uninsured patients is available through the Washington State Public Health Laboratories in Shoreline with prior approval from the health district.

Normally, the health district tracks those who have come in close contact with a person who tested positive for the virus to see if they may have been infected. That would include household members, care providers, close friends and others who spent more than 10 minutes within 6 feet of the patient since the onset of the illness.

“But with our current and worsening future workload, timeliness may be an issue, and more remote or lower-risk contacts may not be prioritized for counseling,” the guidance noted.

“Our key message is this: If you don’t have a high-risk condition and your symptoms are mild, you do not need to be evaluated in person and do not need to be tested for COVID-19. This message is an effort on our part to preserve health system capacity.”

The health district also advised that health care providers potentially exposed to the virus who wore eye protection and a facemask do not need to be quarantined for 14 days. The guidance is discretionary but was considered “helpful in limiting unnecessary impacts on the health care workforce.”

Until proven otherwise, the district said, it seemed “prudent to consider the virus a hearty one that can persist on surfaces up to several days, and possibly longer.”

“That may explain its capacity to establish person-to-person transmission in the absence of clear epidemiologic links between cases,” the advisory said.

Cases have been diagnosed among residents from Bothell and Lynnwood in south Snohomish County up through Everett and Marysville, to Monroe and Sultan in the east. This week, authorities announced three new confirmed cases connected to a Stanwood care home, including one person who died.

Phillip O’Connor: 425-339-3480; poconnor@heraldnet.com. Twitter: @phillipoconnor3.