WASHINGTON — The number of Hispanics in the United States will triple by 2050 and represent nearly 30 percent of the population if current trends continue, according to a report released Monday.
The study by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center also found that nearly one in five Americans will be foreign-born in 2050, compared with about one in eight today. Asian Americans, representing 5 percent of the population today, are expected to boost their share to 9 percent.
Blacks are projected to maintain their current 13 percent share. Non-Hispanic whites will still be the nation’s largest group, but they will drop from 67 percent of U.S. residents to 47 percent.
Overall, the U.S. population will increase by 47 percent from 296 million in 2005 to 438 million by 2050, with newly arriving immigrants accounting for 47 percent of the rise, and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren representing another 35 percent.
Authors of the study, which tracks similar analyses by the Census Bureau and other sources, cautioned that their findings are projections based on immigration and demographic trends that may change.
Nonetheless, the report offers an intriguing picture of the possible long-term effects of the immigration surge that began after 1965, when Congress abolished a quota system that had nearly ended immigration from non-European countries since the 1920s.
Because of a declining birthrate among U.S.-born women, immigrants and their U.S.-born children and grandchildren already account for most of the nation’s population increase over the last several decades.
The study projects that by 2025, the foreign-born share of the population will surpass the peak recorded during the wave of immigration that occurred between 1860 and 1920, when foreign-born residents represented as much as 15 percent of the U.S. population.
Those who oppose allowing immigration to continue at its current pace interpreted the findings as vindication. “These numbers underline the fact that immigration is not a solution to the aging of the population,” said Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors further limits on immigration. “And then we need to ask ourselves if we want the 100 million more people immigration will bring. Do you want 80 million more cars on the road, or 40 million homes occupying what’s now open space?”
But at a news conference to announce the report Monday, co-authors D’Vera Cohn and Jeffrey Passel noted that even if their projections are accurate, the social implications may be different by 2050: Given the high rate of intermarriage between Hispanics and members of other ethnic groups, many descendants of today’s Hispanics may not even identify as such.
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