While California voters remain closely divided on the question of gay marriage, a majority oppose a measure to ban it, according to a poll released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.
But the poll also found that support for Proposition 8, which would amend the state Constitution to disallow same-sex marriage, has gained slightly since a similar survey taken in late August. The latest results show 44 percent in favor and 52 percent opposed, with a margin of error of three percentage points.
Recent polls commissioned by groups for and against the initiative showed it passing, though most political analysts put less faith in polls funded by partisans than in those conducted by independent groups like the Public Policy Institute.
The institute’s president, Mark Baldassare, predicted the election will be close. Polls on the more general question of how voters feel about gays and lesbians marrying have consistently shown a deeply divided electorate, with voters split almost evenly and passionate feelings on both sides.
With huge turnout expected from younger voters and independents, the election is filled with uncertainties, and polling experts say it poses special challenges for pollsters.
Other findings of the poll include:
— Likely voters remained closely divided on Proposition 4, a constitutional amendment that would prohibit girls under 18 from getting abortions without their parents being notified. The poll found 46 percent in favor, 44 percent against and 10 percent undecided.
— Nearly one-quarter of voters remain undecided on Proposition 11, a ballot measure backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger that would set up an independent redistricting commission to redraw boundaries for legislative districts. The poll found 41 percent in favor, 34 percent opposed.
— Four out of five voters said they were worried about the state budget. Forty-four percent say they support fixing the budget gap with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases while 37 percent say they want to see mostly spending cuts.
The findings were based on telephone surveys of 1,186 likely voters between Oct. 12 and 19.
The question of whether to ban gay marriage has emerged as this year’s most expensive ballot proposition, and has aroused strong passions on both sides. As of Wednesday, Yes on 8 campaign committees have raised $26.7 million while the No on Prop 8 committees have brought in $26.1 million.
The California Supreme Court in May ruled that the state constitution’s promise of equal protection affords gays and lesbians the same right to marry as heterosexual couples. The ruling overturned Proposition 22, passed by voters in 2000, which defined marriage as only between a man and a woman. By amending the state constitution, Proposition 8 would remove the basis for the court’s ruling.
Same-sex couples began marrying in June. Many religious leaders and other opponents of same-sex marriage have worked diligently since then to pass Proposition 8.
Campaign contributions from out of state are flooding into California — in part because the state is considered a bellwether. Only one other state, Massachusetts, currently allows same-sex marriage, although the Connecticut Supreme Court recently ruled that gays should be allowed to marry there.
Baldassare, the president of the PPIC, said his poll also found that those in favor of the proposition tend to be more passionate than those on the other side.
Sonja Eddings Brown, spokeswoman for Yes on 8, dismissed the new poll results. “Every other poll that we have seen has shown us (winning),” she said, including polling released by the No side a few weeks ago as part of a fundraising campaign that showed the proposition with a narrow lead.
Charles Franklin, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin and a developer of Pollster.com, said different polls could produce different outcomes depending on “how you ask the question.”
This could be particularly true of Proposition 8, he noted, in which many voters have expressed confusion about what Yes and No mean. A yes vote would ban same sex marriage, while a no vote would preserve it.
Steve Smith, the campaign manager for the no side, had another explanation for diverging poll results: people keep changing their minds.
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