WASHINGTON — Democratic Sen. Barack Obama would narrowly defeat Republican Sen. John McCain if they were matched today in the presidential election, while McCain and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are running about even, according to new general-election sentiment since the Super Tuesday contests.
Obama outpaces Clinton in a matchup against McCain among men, minorities and moderates in an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Monday. And she does no better than Obama when pitted against McCain among two groups that have supported her in Democratic primaries so far: women and whites.
In the Republican race for the GOP nomination, McCain is well ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 44 percent to 30 percent. Clinton and Obama are locked in a Democratic battle that may take weeks or even months to resolve.
When she is paired against McCain in a general election matchup, she gets 46 percent to his 45 percent, a tie, according to the poll. Obama edges McCain, the Arizona senator, 48 percent to 42 percent in their pairing.
One reason McCain holds his own against Clinton is his support from men, who prefer him to the New York senator by 9 percentage points. That compensates for her 11-point advantage among women.
Obama does better than Clinton with men when paired against McCain, splitting the male vote. The Illinois senator does especially well with men under 45: He defeats McCain by 9 points among younger men, while McCain defeats Clinton with those voters by 7 points.
Meanwhile, Obama’s advantage over McCain among women is about the same as Clinton’s, blunting her edge in a group that has been the core of her strength in her fight for the Democratic nomination. Women favor Obama over McCain by 12 points, and favor Clinton over McCain by 11.
Obama gets 74 percent of the votes of minorities when paired against McCain, 7 points more than Clinton. Echoing a pattern seen in most Democratic primaries so far, Obama does better than Clinton among blacks, while she gains slightly more support from Hispanics.
Yet among whites, who have preferred Clinton to Obama in most Democratic contests this year, she has no advantage when she and Obama are paired against McCain. Both get 37 percent of whites’ backing, trailing McCain substantially.
Obama slightly outdoes Clinton against McCain among moderates, a group that comprised almost half the voters in the 2004 general election and that both parties will contest fiercely in November’s general elections. Obama gets 51 percent of their votes against McCain, compared with Clinton’s 45 percent.
In a finding that underscores both McCain’s cross-party appeal, about one-third of Obama’s supporters picked McCain when asked their preference in a Clinton-McCain general election matchup. Nearly three in 10 Clinton backers said they would vote for McCain over Obama.
The survey margin of error was plus-or-minus 4.3 points for Democrats, and a plus-or-minus 5.2 points for Republicans.
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