WASHINGTON — As adversaries realize the enduring superiority of the American military, they are more likely to develop and use low-tech tools of war in hopes of circumventing U.S. strengths, an intelligence report said Monday.
The report, a broad analysis of global security issues facing the new century, says the United States will remain the world’s dominant military power over the next 15 years, China is likely to expand its influence and Russia is headed for further decline.
"U.S. opponents — state and such nonstate actors as drug lords, terrorists and foreign insurgents — will not want to engage the U.S. military on its terms," the report said. "They will choose instead political and military strategies designed to dissuade the United States from using force."
One such strategy would be a threat to use weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical or germ weapons, against U.S. targets. Opponents might also find U.S. computer networks increasingly attractive targets.
Terrorists are likely to devise more deadly means of attack.
"Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties," the report said. "We expect the trend toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks to continue."
Monday’s report, "Global Trends 2015," was 15 months in the making and was directed by the National Intelligence Council, a group of intelligence analysts representing all elements of the U.S. national security establishment, including the Central Intelligence Agency and the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Experts from private think tanks and academic institutions also contributed.
The assessment said that the United States will remain the dominant world power through 2015, but China probably will increase its global influence, Japan will weaken economically and India will increase its regional power.
The full report can be found atc: www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html
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