Scientist will work with state on tsunami prediction

LONGVIEW – A scientist who warned that a Pacific Ocean quake could drive waves to the Northwest coast between 65 and 98 feet high – more than triple the size anticipated in state evacuation plans – says he’ll work with Washington state geologists to fine-tune his calculations.

University of Rhode Island ocean engineering professor Stephan Grilli’s calculations of Northwest tsunami prospects were based on data collected after the disastrous 2004 Asian Tsunami.

He made the analysis at the request of the Discovery Channel, which partially funded his research and used his analysis to promote a Dec. 18 program called, “America’s Tsunami: Are We Next?”

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

A news release about his research described the Cascadia subduction zone off the Northwest coast as a “mirror image” of Indian Ocean fault lines. Grilli has since called that characterization “too alarmist.”

A University of Rhode Island news release quoted Grilli as saying Washington and Oregon communities “need to be even better prepared” than they are now.

But this past week, Grilli told The (Longview) Daily News that his analysis didn’t take into account the coastal topography, which would affect the size of waves that actually reached shore. Nor did he pinpoint where the largest waves would come in.

“The numbers don’t really mean anything right now,” he said Friday. “A lot more work needs to be done.”

Grilli said he’d had no plans to follow up his analysis until it generated interest and skepticism in the Northwest.

He said he’s already been in contact with one of the skeptics, state Department of Natural Resources geologic-hazards manager Tim Walsh.

Grilli said he and Walsh will study whether the unexpectedly massive uplift that occurred in the Indian Ocean floor last year could happen in the Cascadia subduction zone, and what the consequences would be.

“The question is still in the air whether it’s fully realistic for Cascadia,” Grilli said. “I think the message is, we ought to take a look in light of what happened” in the Indian Ocean.

The last great Cascadia earthquake occurred in 1700. The temblor ripped the sea floor off the Washington coast and created a tsunami that is believed to have crested around 10 feet in Japan.

Written records collected from villages on the Japanese island of Honshu show the coast was hit by a series of waves on Jan. 28, 1700.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Students from Explorer Middle School gather Wednesday around a makeshift memorial for Emiliano “Emi” Munoz, who died Monday, May 5, after an electric bicycle accident in south Everett. (Aspen Anderson / The Herald)
Community and classmates mourn death of 13-year-old in bicycle accident

Emiliano “Emi” Munoz died from his injuries three days after colliding with a braided cable.

Danny Burgess, left, and Sandy Weakland, right, carefully pull out benthic organisms from sediment samples on Thursday, May 1, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
‘Got Mud?’ Researchers monitor the health of the Puget Sound

For the next few weeks, the state’s marine monitoring team will collect sediment and organism samples across Puget Sound

Everett postal workers gather for a portrait to advertise the Stamp Out Hunger Food Drive on Wednesday, May 7, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Snohomish County letter carriers prepare for food drive this Saturday

The largest single-day food drive in the country comes at an uncertain time for federal food bank funding.

Everett
Everett considers ordinance to require more apprentice labor

It would require apprentices to work 15% of the total labor hours for construction or renovation on most city projects over $1 million.

Snohomish County prosecutor Kara Van Slyck delivers closing statement during the trial of Christian Sayre at the Snohomish County Courthouse on Thursday, May 8, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Jury deliberations begin in the fourth trial of former Everett bar owner

Jury members deliberated for about 2 hours before Snohomish County Superior Court Judge Millie Judge sent them home until Monday.

Christian Sayre sits in the courtroom before the start of jury selection on Tuesday, April 29, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Christian Sayre timeline

FEBRUARY 2020 A woman reports a sexual assault by Sayre. Her sexual… Continue reading

Marysville
Marysville talks middle housing at open house

City planning staff say they want a ‘soft landing’ to limit the impacts of new state housing laws. But they don’t expect their approach to slow development.

Smoke from the Bolt Creek fire silhouettes a mountain ridge and trees just outside of Index on Sept. 12, 2022. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
County will host two wildfire-preparedness meetings in May

Meetings will allow community members to learn wildfire mitigation strategies and connect with a variety of local and state agencies.

A speed limiter device, like this one, will be required for repeat speeding offenders under a Washington law signed on May 12, 2025. The law doesn’t take effect until 2029. (Photo by Jake Goldstein-Street/Washington State Standard)
Washington to rein in fast drivers with speed limiters

A new law set to take effect in 2029 will require repeat speeding offenders to install the devices in their vehicles.

Commuters from Whidbey Island disembark their vehicles from the ferry Tokitae on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018 in Mukilteo, Wa.  (Andy Bronson / The Herald)
Bids for five new hybrid ferries come in high

It’s raising doubts about the state’s plans to construct up to five new hybrid-electric vessels with the $1.3 billion lawmakers have set aside.

City of Everett Engineer Tom Hood, left, and City of Everett Engineer and Project Manager Dan Enrico, right, talks about the current Edgewater Bridge demolition on Friday, May 9, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
How do you get rid of a bridge? Everett engineers can explain.

Workers began dismantling the old Edgewater Bridge on May 2. The process could take one to two months, city engineers said.

Christian Sayre walks out of the courtroom in handcuffs after being found guilty on two counts of indecent liberties at the end of his trial at the Snohomish County Courthouse on Monday, May 12, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Former bar owner convicted on two of three counts of sexual abuse

A jury deliberated for about 8 hours before returning guilty verdicts on two charges of indecent liberties Monday.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.