WASHINGTON – Republicans are poised to renew their grip on the House on Tuesday, and Democrats’ faint hopes of a Senate takeover hinge on close races in a string of Southern and Western states that favor President Bush.
In the marquee congressional campaign of the year, Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle is in a close, costly struggle for a new term in South Dakota.
Texas, where a Republican redistricting plan placed five Democratic congressmen in political jeopardy, will have an outsized influence in determining which party gains seats in the House.
In all, 34 Senate races mark the ballot, as well as all 435 House seats. Democrats must gain two seats to capture a 51-vote majority in the Senate that convenes in January. They need to pick up 12 in the House.
Overall, according to an Associated Press analysis and interviews with political strategists, the number of competitive races is relatively small – nine in the Senate, 30 or fewer in the House – after a campaign that cost the candidates, their parties and outside groups uncounted millions of dollars.
In competitive races in several states, Republicans reached for Bush’s coattails and sought to tie their opponents to Kerry.
“Against tax cuts, a liberal record, a negative campaign. No wonder he supports John Kerry,” said challenger Louis Gohmert’s ad against four-term Democratic Rep. Max Sandlin in the president’s home state of Texas.
But presidential politics aid Democrats elsewhere. In Connecticut, for example, GOP Reps. Chris Shays and Rob Simmons are struggling for new terms in a state that is safe for Kerry.
In a late-campaign bid for gains, Democratic House candidates and the party’s campaign committee aired commercials in Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, North Carolina, Texas and Washington attacking Republicans for supporting a national sales tax in place of the current income tax system. “A new sales tax on milk, gas, new homes and a car, even a haircut” on top of the state levy, says one commercial, aimed at Republican Cathy McMorris in Washington.
In a few races, unscripted moments and unguarded moment have hurt, Republicans most prominently.
None more so than Kentucky GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, who alleged without proof at one point that his wife wound up “black and blue” after an encounter at a picnic with aides to his rival. That followed a claim that his opponent resembled one of Saddam Hussein’s sons. Democratic challenger Dan Mongiardo has erased most of Bunning’s early 20-point lead, and both parties poured money into the Kentucky in the final days.
Given Daschle’s prominence – and the White House’s eagerness to defeat him – the race with former GOP Rep. John Thune has commanded more money and more attention from the parties than any other.
Together, the two candidates have spent more than $26 million in a fight to prevail. That comes to about $50 for each eligible voter.
“I believe this election, like the one two years ago, is going to be decided by a handful of votes,” said Thune, defeated by 524 votes in a Senate campaign in 2002. Daschle’s campaign estimated there were about 10,000 undecided voters – and said it had their names and telephone numbers.
South Dakota was one of six Democratic seats in the Senate that Republicans targeted. Others were in southern states where veteran Democratic lawmakers had retired.
Officials in both parties agree that Rep. Johnny Isaakson, heavily favored in Georgia, is the Republicans’ best chance to capture a Democratic seat.
The Democrats’ surest new winner is Barack Obama, a state senator running nearly 50 points ahead in Illinois. He is on track to become the only black member of the Senate.
Democrats fielded strong, well-funded candidates in several states where lawmakers of both parties retired.
Polls show Florida, North Carolina and even South Carolina remain competitive into the campaign’s final weekend. Louisiana appears headed for a December runoff, based on the latest surveys.
Republican retirements combined with strong Democratic recruitment have produced competitive races in Colorado and Oklahoma. In Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, appointed to her seat by her father, the governor, is struggling to fend off former Gov. Tony Knowles.
Dozens of incumbents of both parties are safe for re-election. Among them is Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, probable Democratic leader if Daschle loses.
In Texas, GOP redistricting threatens the careers of Democratic Reps. Nick Lampson, Chet Edwards, Martin Frost, Charles Stenholm and Sandlin, with a combined 82 years of experience.
Frost faces Rep. Pete Sessions in the country’s most expensive contest – and arguably its most vitriolic. Stenholm’s opponent is Rep. Randy Neugebauer, in his first term.
Outside Bush’s home state, Republicans placed Democratic Reps. Baron Hill of Indiana and Jim Matheson in Utah atop their target list. Democrats aimed for Rep. Phil Crane of Illinois, the senior Republican in the House, as well as Reps. Max Burns of Georgia, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, and Simmons and Shays in Connecticut.
There are competitive races for Democratic open seats in Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri and California. Open Republican seats in Washington, Colorado, Louisiana and New York are also the focus of intensive campaigning.
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