Super Tuesday win is matter of tricky math

WASHINGTON — Call it Super Complicated Tuesday: a virtual national primary that may not yield a clear winner in the high-stakes showdown between Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois. The Republican selection process, however, is more clear-cut.

Of the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination at the party convention in August, 1,681 will be awarded by voters today. Republicans will pick 1,023 of the 1,191 delegates their winner needs.

While the big popular vote will look good on television, it’s the number of delegates that counts.

“The first objective of the campaigns is to be ahead on the delegate count on the sixth of February,” said Tad Devine, a top adviser to Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 and who is unaligned in this race. “That’s the place you want to be.”

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Few expect a clear Democratic winner to emerge from Super Tuesday because the party awards delegates in proportion to votes. The arithmetic is tricky. It hinges on critical thresholds in each congressional district, of which California alone has 53.

In fact, the loser of the popular vote could emerge nearly tied in delegates, continuing the race through the remaining primaries that will cover most states by March 4 but don’t end until June.

“When all the confetti has hit the floor and everyone takes a deep breath and looks at what happened, it may come out to a difference of only a couple of hundred delegates,” said Jenny Backus, a Democratic strategist.

Perception will help. When the television network boards light up Tuesday night, they will show the winners of the popular vote, conveying an aura of front-runner status. The big states will make a big show: California is far and away the largest prize, followed by New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Georgia.

The maps will also show the spread of wins across the country in smaller states, bestowing a sense of national reach. Many eyes will be on Missouri, a classic bellwether that nearly always picks the eventual winner.

But if the delegate count is close, the race will quickly move to the next round of states on Feb. 9 (Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana), Feb. 10 (Maine), Feb. 12 (Virginia) and Feb. 19 (Wisconsin).

The Republican race, winnowed mainly to Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, will be much clearer.

In the GOP’s winner-take-all primaries in New York, New Jersey and Arizona, second place might as well be last. Even states such as California that use partial proportional representation give the GOP winner of each district all its delegates, and the statewide winner all the statewide delegates.

That’s enough to cement a winner.

Super Tuesday by the numbers

Facts about presidential contests being held today. Not all primaries and caucuses include both parties:

Democratic contests: 23

Republican contests: 21

Primaries: 15 (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah)

Caucuses: 8 (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota)

Also: West Virginia holds its Republican convention; American Samoa holds its Democratic caucuses.

States with most delegates: California (370 Democratic delegates, 170 GOP delegates), New York (232 Democratic, 101 GOP)

Total Democratic delegates at stake: 1,681

Total Republican delegates at stake: 1,023

Total delegates needed to nominate: 2,025 (Democrats), 1,191 (Republicans)

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