U.S. intelligence reports relying more on open sources

WASHINGTON — Governments have long prized intelligence gleaned by spies, satellites and wiretaps. But senior intelligence officials said key findings in a new intelligence report on Iran’s nuclear weapons hinged on intelligence that was hidden in plain sight — on the Web, in newspapers and in nongovernmental reports.

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear weapons program released Monday relied in important ways on pictures of Iranian nuclear sites snapped by reporters during government tours of the facilities. The first was in March 2005. At the time, a U.S. State Department spokesman derided the visit as a “staged media tour.” Two years later, Iran opened a different facility to the press.

“We actually ended up with photography of all of the equipment there. So instead of having very extensive arguments about whether pipes were 12 inches in diameter or 12 centimeters, we have data,” a senior intelligence official told reporters Monday.

ADVERTISEMENT
0 seconds of 0 secondsVolume 0%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:00
00:00
 

He called the visit “astounding.” The official spoke only on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

“That helped us understand what they had and might be capable of as well,” he said.

Those photos, along with unclassified reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency and intelligence gathered in clandestine ways, make U.S. intelligence agencies predict “technical problems” will prevent Iran from being able to produce enough enriched uranium to fuel a nuclear warhead for at least two years. The State Department’s intelligence office believes the enrichment would not occur for at least five years because of “foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.”

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation think tank, found the admission remarkable.

“If the press hadn’t taken those pictures does it really mean they would not have had that?” he said. “It’s really curious.”

Another intelligence official said the 2005 photos were not factored into that year’s intelligence estimate on Iran because the photos were not available to them then.

Some analysts believe publicly available information — known as “open-source intelligence”— is inherently untrustworthy, released by a government to deliberately mislead.

“If you have a photo in March ‘05 that was somehow anomalous to other intelligence you had, you would think the photo was a deception,” said Mark Lowenthal, a former assistant CIA director for production and analysis, now the president of the Intelligence and Security Academy, a training and consulting company. “As you start doing more collection, you start getting other intelligence, and say, ‘Oh my god, that photo was real.’ “

Lowenthal doubts the photos themselves made a critical difference on their own.

“We don’t have a lot of ‘Aha’ moments in this business,” he said. “We have small accretions of information.”

Principal deputy national intelligence director Donald Kerr said Thursday at a House intelligence subcommittee hearing that the Iran report was perhaps the most deeply sourced National Intelligence Estimate ever. The document has over 1,000 footnotes, he said.

Open-source intelligence generally makes up between 80 percent and 90 percent of the information analysts use in their reports. But it has fallen in and out of fashion, and the cultural obstacles to its use inside intelligence circles can be high.

“There’s an inherent bias in the mid-generation (of analysts) toward believing there is greater credibility in classified information,” David Shedd, the deputy director of national intelligence for policy, plans and requirements, told the subcommittee.

“It used to be this use of this kind of material was not valued much because it wasn’t secret,” agreed Arthur Hulnick, who worked at the CIA for 28 years and is now a professor at Boston University. “Policymakers used to say, ‘Don’t give me something I can read in the New York Times. I want something sexier than that.’ “

Hulnick’s students have written their own assessments of Iran’s nuclear program using only open sources. He said their conclusions are similar to what the U.S. intelligence agencies just produced.

U.S. intelligence agencies are increasingly incorporating open-source intelligence into their work, lured by the vast amount of information now available online and in specialized publications.

“People are using it. They are seeing the value now,” Kerr said.

Open source has become especially vital in the last few years because so many intelligence assets have been shifted to force-protection missions, the senior intelligence official said.

“That means other forms of collection that used to dribble automatically to your computer aren’t there. You need to go elsewhere to get that” information, he said.

In November 2005, the director of national intelligence unveiled the Open Source Center, a digital and physical library created to organize everything the intelligence community discovers and knows to be reliable. The official said it is in the early stages of ingesting information and vetting it with experts.

Still, barriers remain, the official said. Some intelligence officers still do not have Internet connections at their desks. And there are “excessively cumbersome” rules governing contact with outside experts that limit where analysts can turn for additional information, fearful they would tip off an enemy to U.S. intelligence interests, he said.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Students from Explorer Middle School gather Wednesday around a makeshift memorial for Emiliano “Emi” Munoz, who died Monday, May 5, after an electric bicycle accident in south Everett. (Aspen Anderson / The Herald)
Community and classmates mourn death of 13-year-old in bicycle accident

Emiliano “Emi” Munoz died from his injuries three days after colliding with a braided cable.

Danny Burgess, left, and Sandy Weakland, right, carefully pull out benthic organisms from sediment samples on Thursday, May 1, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
‘Got Mud?’ Researchers monitor the health of the Puget Sound

For the next few weeks, the state’s marine monitoring team will collect sediment and organism samples across Puget Sound

Everett postal workers gather for a portrait to advertise the Stamp Out Hunger Food Drive on Wednesday, May 7, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Snohomish County letter carriers prepare for food drive this Saturday

The largest single-day food drive in the country comes at an uncertain time for federal food bank funding.

Everett
Everett considers ordinance to require more apprentice labor

It would require apprentices to work 15% of the total labor hours for construction or renovation on most city projects over $1 million.

Snohomish County prosecutor Kara Van Slyck delivers closing statement during the trial of Christian Sayre at the Snohomish County Courthouse on Thursday, May 8, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Jury deliberations begin in the fourth trial of former Everett bar owner

Jury members deliberated for about 2 hours before Snohomish County Superior Court Judge Millie Judge sent them home until Monday.

Christian Sayre sits in the courtroom before the start of jury selection on Tuesday, April 29, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Christian Sayre timeline

FEBRUARY 2020 A woman reports a sexual assault by Sayre. Her sexual… Continue reading

Commuters from Whidbey Island disembark their vehicles from the ferry Tokitae on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018 in Mukilteo, Wa.  (Andy Bronson / The Herald)
Bids for five new hybrid ferries come in high

It’s raising doubts about the state’s plans to construct up to five new hybrid-electric vessels with the $1.3 billion lawmakers have set aside.

City of Everett Engineer Tom Hood, left, and City of Everett Engineer and Project Manager Dan Enrico, right, talks about the current Edgewater Bridge demolition on Friday, May 9, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
How do you get rid of a bridge? Everett engineers can explain.

Workers began dismantling the old Edgewater Bridge on May 2. The process could take one to two months, city engineers said.

Christian Sayre walks out of the courtroom in handcuffs after being found guilty on two counts of indecent liberties at the end of his trial at the Snohomish County Courthouse on Monday, May 12, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Former bar owner convicted on two of three counts of sexual abuse

A jury deliberated for about 8 hours before returning guilty verdicts on two charges of indecent liberties Monday.

From left: Patrick Murphy, Shawn Carey and Justin Irish.
Northshore school board chooses 3 finalists in superintendent search

Shaun Carey, Justin Irish and Patrick Murphy currently serve as superintendents at Washington state school districts.

Paine Field Community Day returns Saturday, May 17

The youth-focused celebration will feature aircraft displays, talks with pilots and a variety of local food vendors.

FILE — Jet fuselages at Boeing’s fabrication site in Everett, Wash., Sept. 28, 2022. Some recently manufactured Boeing and Airbus jets have components made from titanium that was sold using fake documentation verifying the material’s authenticity, according to a supplier for the plane makers. (Jovelle Tamayo/The New York Times)
Boeing adding new space in Everett despite worker reduction

Boeing is expanding the amount of space it occupies in… Continue reading

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.