Voter turnout may surpass that of most election years

WASHINGTON — Americans voted in unprecedented numbers in Tuesday’s election, topping the record set in the 2004 presidential race by several million.

Experts differed on the scale of the voter turnout increase in their analysis.

Michael McDonald of George Mason University estimated that about 133.3 million people voted for president, based on preliminary results from the country’s precincts tallied and projections for absentee ballots.

Using his methods, that would give 2008 a 62.5 percent turnout rate, he said.

A more conservative estimate came from Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University. He said the total votes could be between 126.5 million and 129 million.

Each vote total surpassed the count in 2004 when 122.3 million ballots were cast, the most ever for president.

With 97 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press figures showed about 121.5 million people had voted in the White House race.

Numbers may change as officials count more absentee and provisional ballots.

McDonald suggested the turnout could be close to that of 1964, but not higher than 1960 when John F. Kennedy squeaked out a victory over Richard Nixon. The turnout rate then was 63.8 percent, compared with 62.8 percent in 1964.

Gans said the lower end of his estimate would put the rate near that of 2004.

Experts calculate turnout rates in different ways based on whom they consider eligible voters. This is different from the turnout of registered voters.

Breakdown by party voting shows that Republican turnout rates are down quite a bit, while Democratic turnout rates are up, Gans said.

What’s most interesting about early results is not just how many people voted but the shifting demographic of American voters, said Stephen Ansolabehere, a political science professor at Harvard and MIT.

Using exit polling data, Ansolabehere determined that whites made up 74 percent of the 2008 electorate. That’s down considerably from 81 percent in 2000 because of increase in black and Hispanic voting, he said. Ansolabehere said young voters didn’t show up in the anticipated wave.