Eco-nomics: A brief history of how the climate crisis unfolded

By Paul Roberts / For The Herald

Few subjects have been the target of disinformation more frequently than climate change and climate science. For more than half a century, the fossil fuel industry has conducted a multi-million dollar propaganda and disinformation campaign to undermine climate science, planting doubts in the minds of the public.

As early as 1968, the oil and gas industry knew of the damage their products would cause to the environment and chose to cover it up using the same tactics as the tobacco industry. (See “Eco-nomics: Climate change and that elephant in the room,” Oct. 7, 2023, The Herald.)

Today the campaign of disinformation continues. The blueprint is outlined in Project 2025, and includes “a pledge to end the war on fossil fuels, by nixing policies designed to limit climate change.” Advocates for these policies and the fossil fuel industry are about to take leadership positions in the Trump administration. (See “Eco-nomics: Looking back and forward on the climate crisis,” Jan. 4, The Herald.)

In his 2017 book “On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons From The Twentieth Century,” Yale history professor Timothy Snyder writes: “To abandon fact is to abandon freedom. If nothing is true, than no one can criticize power, because there is no basis upon which to do so. If nothing is true, then all is spectacle. The biggest wallet pays for the most blinding lights.”

It is timely, then, to highlight some important historical facts related to global warming and climate science.

1800-1870: The industrial revolution begins with coal, railroads, land clearing and population growth increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere were relatively stable at approximately 290 parts per million (ppm).

1879:- The International Meteorological Organization begins to compile standardized global weather data, including temperatures.

1896: Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius publishes the first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2.

1900-1940: Scientists debate the impact of carbon dioxide on global warming. In 1938 English engineer G.S. Calendar calculates that rising CO2 levels contribute to warming temperatures.

1950-1960: Broad climate research emerges. Dr. Roger Revelle, a pioneer in oceanography, leads research on climate change at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. He is chairman of the first Committee on Climate Change and the Ocean.

1960: Dr. Charles Keeling, also with Scripps, measures CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere and detects an annual rise. His Keeling Curve also known as the “hockey stick graph,” is still used today. Keeling’s work is considered a defining moment linking human-caused global warming and climate change. By 1960 carbon dioxide levels were at 317 ppm.

1960-1970: Scientific research on global warming and climate change expands. In 1968 scientists examining ocean and atmospheric conditions conclude that doubling CO2 could increase average global temperature by 1 to 3 degrees C by 2050, and 10 degrees at the poles. Significant temperature changes are almost certain to occur by the year 2000 and these could bring about climate change, including melting of the Antarctic ice cap, rise in sea levels, and warming of the oceans and atmosphere.

1968-1969: Reports produced for the American Petroleum Institute project that based on current fuel usage, atmospheric CO2 concentrations would reach 370 ppm by 2000. Carbon dioxide was measured at 369.34 ppm in 2000.

1970-1980: Significant scientific research on global warming and climate change is underway across the globe. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is created and is the leading source of funding for atmospheric research, climate science and data collection.

1976: Studies identify the “greenhouse” gases in addition to carbon dioxide that contribute to global warming, including methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases and water vapor.

1988: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established by the United Nations to coordinate and build consensus on climate science globally. The IPCC is considered the gold standard for climate science.

1990 to present: The IPCC issues numerous reports contributing to climate agreements including the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015 to limit global warming to between 1.5 and 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Today carbon dioxide is at 424 ppm and global temperatures are at 1.5 degrees C.

The basic science of human-caused global warming and climate change has been understood for more than 50 years.

Despite these facts, the incoming Trump administration is committed to accelerating the burning fossil fuels, literally throwing gas on the fire. The gas-lighting and disinformation incorporated in Project 2025 is a tool to rationalize these policies.

The consequences of an unstable atmosphere including heat, fires, drought, floods, and sea level rise are unfolding in real time. The remedy is not to wage war on climate science, but to use it to address climate change strategies for adaptation, mitigation and a clean energy economy.

Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change and past chair of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board of Directors.

Eco-nomics

“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.

The Eco-nomics series focuses on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics. Find links to the series thus far at tinyurl.com/HeraldEco-nomics.