By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
The control room of Spaceship Earth is a noisy place. Alarms are blaring, instrument needles are moving into the danger zone, and warning lights are blinking red.
The past nine years have been the warmest on record. Air and ocean chemistry is changing. Heat events, storms, floods, droughts, fires, melting ice and sea level rise are all increasing. Global warming and climate-influenced events are accelerating.
Fires in Lahaina, Maui, Washington state, Oregon and across Canada are the latest stark and tragic reminders of rapidly changing conditions on the planet from burning fossil fuels. The town of Yellowknife, in Canada’s Northwest Territories, with a population of nearly 20,000 was evacuated due to wildfires. Canada is experiencing the worst wildfire season in its history. We are witnessing wildfires burning in the tropics and tundra at the same time.
Other towns have been destroyed by fire in recent years. In 2021, fires wiped out the town of Lytton, B.C., after temperatures exceeded 120 degrees F; the hottest ever recorded in Canada. In 2018, the Camp Fire razed the town of Paradise, Calif., killing 85 people and destroying 18,000 structures.
Earth is on fire, but so far our response is to throw ever larger amounts of gas on the flames. If we do not respond, this fire will burn down the global economic structure as sure as it destroyed the homes in Lahaina.
Climate scientists have documented the acceleration of greenhouse gases (GHG) and climate impacts for more than 70 years. Since the turn of the 21st century climate change acceleration has become more prominent along with the science to measure it. More on that in a moment.
History of acceleration: In 1896, Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish physicist, chemist and Nobel Prize winner, published the first calculations describing the greenhouse effect. His work is a foundation of modern climate science. The industrial revolution and the modern economy have been powered by increasing amounts of fossil fuels that have emitting GHGs for 150 years.
In the 1950s, scientists began to raise questions about the longterm effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Roger Revelle, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, raised the prospect that by the 21st century the greenhouse gas effect might exert “a violent effect on the earth’s climate.” He testified before Congress in 1957, raising concerns that the greenhouse effect might turn Southern California and Texas into deserts.
In 1958, Dr. Charles Keeling, with Scripps, collected carbon dioxide readings from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and in 1961 published findings showing carbon levels were steadily raising. The “Keeling Curve” still serves as a foundation for measuring carbon in the atmosphere. This work began to raise serious concerns regarding the effects of increasing GHGs on the climate.
Thirty years later, scientist James Hansen, a pioneer in climate science, testified before Congress that the greenhouse effect was changing our climate even then. He and a growing number of climate scientists continue to accurately predict the changes we are currently experiencing. Many of these predictions are at the upper end of the range, reflecting a pattern of acceleration.
The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), created in 1988, represents scientific consensus from across the globe. The foremost authority on climate science, the IPCC has issued numerous reports documenting climate change. In 2018, the IPCC published “Global Warming of 1.5 Degree C,” documenting the severe consequences of climate change and the urgency to act in order to limit overall warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, consistent with the 2015 Paris accords.
Since 1960, carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions have been accelerating, along with predicted consequences for the planet. About three quarters of all industrial carbon emissions in history have occurred since the 1960s and more than half since the 1980s.
Assigning attribution: Climate change attribution is an emerging branch of climate science. It is the study of whether, and to what degree, human influence may have contributed to extreme weather or climate events. Prior to the development of attribution methods and models, it was not possible to determine the degree to which human activities influenced a given event (e.g. heat, wildfires, floods and hurricanes).
Advances in computer modeling, statistical comparisons of human influence on extreme events, as well as better understanding of Earth’s climate systems, have advanced attribution science. It is a valuable tool to assess risks and manage costs.
Attribution also accounts for uncertainty. It has proved effective in evaluating extreme heat and hurricane events. For example, an attribution study determined: “It is virtually certain that human-caused global warming increased the magnitude of the heat in the 2021 event,” the heat dome that caused temperatures well above 100 degrees throughout the Pacific Northwest. However, attribution analysis is more challenging where there are more uncertainties and greater natural variability.
Currently, heat, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, droughts and record air and ocean temperatures across the globe are the result of 1 degree C (2 degree F) warming baked into the atmosphere. We are on a path to exceed 1.5° degrees C, estimated to be the limits to avoid irreversible tipping points.
The global economy will not fare well in an ever-warming world. Building an economy based on clean energy is the only alternative we have. It is possible to do, but requires urgent action and political will. The time to act is now.
The next article will address what it will take to reverse this course.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions —carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, will focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
Read the series thus far at tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics1, tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics2 and tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics3.
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