The need for drastic change in the U.S. mission in Iraq was crystallized by two government reports on Thursday.
The Bush administration’s own assessment of Iraqi progress on a series of 18 benchmarks was disappointing but not surprising. Progress was termed “unsatisfactory” on the most crucial goals, including those involving reconciliation among the sectarian factions involved in civil war. On the goal of creating Iraqi security forces that are capable of fighting on their own, the Pentagon admitted Friday that things are actually moving backward. Despite increased U.S. training efforts, the number of battle-ready Iraqi battalions able to fight independently has dropped from 10 to six in recent months.
Separately, a draft National Intelligence Estimate reportedly says that al-Qaida has regained much of its former strength from its new base along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. The Senate passed legislation Friday doubling the bounty on Osama bin Laden, who remains at large nearly six years after the Sept. 11 attacks, to $50 million.
Together, the reports paint a picture of futility in Iraq, and what that distraction has cost in the greater fight against terrorist threats.
Our mission in Iraq must change. President Bush’s fuzzy vision of victory there – presumably, a unified, democratic government that can police the country and protect its borders – isn’t achievable in the foreseeable future. Our troops are mired in the crossfire of a deepening civil war, and have become a rallying point for al-Qaida offshoots.
Bush’s troop “surge,” intended to provide “breathing room” for a government that’s closer to collapse than accord, has only provided more targets for insurgents and terrorists. In the meantime, troop morale is suffering from repeated and extended deployments, our military’s readiness would be in question should another trouble spot erupt, and academy graduates are leaving the military in droves.
The U.S. role in Iraq must change to one that gets our troops out of the middle of the civil war and focuses on training Iraqi forces, protecting the Iraqi borders and going after terrorists. A military solution isn’t working. Other tools, like diplomacy and economic pressure, should be brought to bear to force the entire region to get involved in working toward a stable Iraq – an outcome that’s in every Middle Eastern nation’s interest.
A responsible, staged withdrawal of U.S. forces may be just the pressure the Iraqi government needs to make real progress. The belief that our military commitment is open-ended is a disincentive for Shiite and Sunni leaders to make difficult concessions. And, it’s an incentive for Iraq’s problematic neighbors, Iran and Syria, to make mischief. The danger of even greater chaos in Iraq, which could spill over its borders, might push its neighbors in a more constructive direction.
For the moment, President Bush has enough Republican support in Congress to retain control of the situation. That may not be the case in September, when another assessment of Iraqi progress is due. Already, leading Republican senators are calling for dramatic moves toward withdrawal. Those numbers are all but certain to grow in the coming weeks.
The administration had better be preparing its own withdrawal plan to present in September. If it isn’t, expect a fed-up, veto-proof majority in Congress to implement its own.
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