Washington running back Cameron Davis scores a touchdown during the first half of a game against Colorado on Nov. 19, 2022, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

Washington running back Cameron Davis scores a touchdown during the first half of a game against Colorado on Nov. 19, 2022, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

Analysis: What’s next for UW after Pac-12 upheaval?

With Colorado officially bolting for the Big 12, here’s three scenarios that could play out for Washington.

By Mike Vorel / The Seattle Times

During Pac-12 media day last week, Merton Hanks — the conference’s “executive associate commissioner of football operations” — was asked about his former San Francisco 49ers teammate and current Colorado head coach Deion Sanders.

“I’m excited that he’s in the Pac-12,” Hanks said. “He’s going to raise the bar and, quite frankly, bring out the best in all of our coaches, because you know you’re competing against a winner on the other side. Make no mistake about that.”

Make no mistake: Mistakes have been made.

And Sanders won’t be in the Pac-12 for long.

That much became abundantly clear Wednesday, when multiple reports arose that Colorado will return to the Big 12 in 2024. The Buffs’ reversal was cemented with a board of regents vote roughly 24 hours later.

Which leaves Washington, it seems, at a fork in the drastically diverging realignment road.

So where do the Huskies go from here?

As Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff scrambles to plug his sinking ship, and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark circles the boat, let’s analyze three ways this cannibalistic conference shuffle could play out for Washington:

1. UW stays, the Pac-12 expands and the conference survives (for now)

Colorado will be the Big 12’s 13th member in 2024.

Yormark almost certainly won’t stop there.

The Big 12 will likely look to add either one or three additional members (to arrive at an even number). So who will be next?

UConn is the odds-on favorite, though the Big 12 would probably prefer to add Arizona, Arizona State or Utah instead.

Kliavkoff’s challenge, then, is to convince the Pac-12’s remaining members to stick together — while aggressively pursuing expansion as well. The best way to achieve the former is (and has been) to produce a competitive media deal, and Kliavkoff has repeatedly stated that the conference will complete said deal before considering expansion.

Now he can’t afford to wait.

It’s increasingly unlikely that the long-awaited Pac-12 deal can approach the Big-12’s number — $31.7 million per school, per year — without adding 1-3 members first. San Diego State, SMU and Colorado State are viable options.

But there are hurdles here, too.

Specifically, San Diego State — a no-brainer candidate that would keep the Pac-12 in Southern California — faces an increasingly exorbitant exit fee. To compete in the Pac-12 in 2024, the Aztecs would owe the Mountain West Conference roughly $35 million (double the $17 million fee if SDSU announced its departure before July 1).

But let’s suspend our disbelief — for now — and assume Kliavkoff stumbles over some consolatory wins. The Pac-12 expands, the media deal arrives and the numbers are strong enough for its remaining members to sign a grant of rights.

(These are some increasingly dubious dominoes, we know.)

For Washington, the appeal here revolves around consistent College Football Playoff access.

The CFP is expanding to a 12-team model in 2024, with automatic bids going to the top six conference champions. That all but guarantees a playoff spot (and a sizable payout) to the Pac-12 champion, an annually achievable goal in a smaller league that just bid goodbye to traditional powerhouse USC.

In other words: UW has an undoubtedly more direct playoff path in a 10 (or 11, or 12) team Pac-12 than a 14 (or 16) team Big 12.

If the Pac-12’s next media deal expires in five to seven years — followed by a larger realignment reckoning — UW could conceivably dominate this shriveled shell of a conference, before riding into the Big Ten’s waiting arms.

2. More Pac-12 programs leave, the conference crumbles and the Big Ten throws a lifeline

Cue the chaos.

Let’s say more teams — Arizona, Arizona State, Utah or anyone else — flee for Big 12 stability and the Pac-12 essentially sinks into the sea. Would the Big Ten then throw Washington, Oregon, Stanford or Cal additional lifelines?

The Big Ten is already adding USC and UCLA next year, and further additions would make geographic and scheduling sense. But commissioner Tony Petitti said at Big Ten Media Days on Wednesday that he has not received “any direction” from his current members to pursue further expansion.

Of course, in conference realignment, the winds shift in a hurry — and there’s little question Washington would favor such a move. The Big Ten would provide the security, academic reputation and re$ource$ the Huskies covet … even if CFP access significantly suffers in a competitively stout 18- or 20-team league.

(It’s also possible the Big Ten could use its significant leverage to offer UW and/or others a partial media rights share, at least at first.)

As lifeboats go, the Big Ten is a yacht with a waterslide.

But there’s danger in hoping and waiting for it to arrive.

3. UW follows Colorado (and others?) to the Big 12

Which brings us to the lifeboat that has already arrived, albeit with fewer bells and whistles.

The Big 12 has stability, with 13 members locked into a six-year grant of rights (through 2030-31). It has an actual, real, publicly reported media deal with ESPN and Fox featuring a clause promising a full share — $31.7 million per year — to additional Power Five programs that join the conference. It has perhaps the country’s premier lineup of basketball programs and a 2022-23 CFP appearance (and semifinal win) to its name.

It does not have the academic pedigree Washington covets, or improved playoff access, or traditional rivalries/opponents, or regional ties. And though Oregon and Washington could conceivably move together, road games (regardless of sport) in Morgantown, W.Va., or Waco, Texas, would provide logistical headaches galore.

This likely isn’t an option UW’s administration would be enthusiastic to accept. But if the Pac-12’s media deal is flatly unacceptable, and the Big Ten stands pat at 16 members, what other option would Washington have?

(Remember: the SEC appears uninterested in westward expansion, while the ACC’s powers are openly exploring breaching their conference’s grant of rights. So those are exceedingly unlikely landing spots.)

Despite it all, UW’s brand and market value essentially assure the Huskies will land on their feet.

The question, for Washington, is where.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Sports

Shorewood senior Bridget Cox (11) elevates to get a shot over Everett senior Aimelie Hovde-Girard (21) in Shorewood's 41-30 win in the opening round of the District 1 3A Girls Tournament on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025 in Shoreline, Washington. (Joe Pohoryles / The Herald)
Shorewood girls basketball avoids Everett upset bid in 41-30 win

Glasser’s ‘dagger’ 3 caps second-half run, pushes No. 5 Stormrays to 3A District 1 Quarterfinals

Prep roundup for Wednesday, Feb. 12

Terrace, Monroe girls advance in district hoops tournament.

Kimberly Beard, a Mukilteo resident who attends King's High School, prepares to release a throw during the 20-pound weight competition at George Fox University in Newberg, Ore. on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025. (Photo courtesy of Donna Beard)
Mukilteo’s Kimberly Beard wins throwing event

The King’s High School junior won the 20-pound weight throw at a George Fox indoor meet.

Seahawks right tackle Abraham Lucas (72), who will be coached by his third offensive line coach in three seasons in 2025, lines up in Seattle's 20-17 win over San Francisco at Levi's Stadium on Nov. 17, 2024. (Photo courtesy of Edwin Hooper / Seattle Seahawks)
Seahawks hire shows they’re serious about offensive line

New offensive coordinator bringing in veterans with hopes of improving front.

Vote for The Herald’s Prep Athlete of the Week for Feb. 2-8

The Athlete of the Week nominees for Feb. 2-8. Voting closes at… Continue reading

Stanwood High School football coach Jeff Scoma talks with the referees during the 3A quarterfinal game against Odea on Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Former Stanwood football coach lands new Gig

Jeff Scoma, who resigned midseason in 2024, will coach Gig Harbor H.S. next season.

Mariners among biggest offseason losers

Juan Soto, LA Dodgers are among winners as baseball begins.

Prep basketball roundup for Tuesday, Feb. 11

Tulalip Heritage finishes second in district tournament.

Vancouver Giants goalie Burke Hood makes a play for the puck against the Everett Silvertips, who lost 6-2 to the Giants at Langley Events Centre on Saturday, one day after clinching a WHL playoff spot. (Rob Wilton, Giants/Special to Black Press Media).
Tips Week in Review: Everett first in WHL to clinch playoff berth

The Silvertips defeated Kamloops on Friday to secure spot, but lost to Vancouver on Saturday

Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (left) and head coach Mike Macdonald (right) spoke to the media at the Virginia Mason Athletic Center in Renton on Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025 (Aaron Coe / The Herald)
New Seahawks OC excited to coach Geno Smith

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has “a lot of respect” for Seahawks QB.

Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett (16) runs with after a catch against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Photo courtesy of the Seattle Seahawks)
Tyler Lockett’s future with Seahawks remains unclear

Seattle coach Mike Macdonald noncommittal 1 month before a possible decision point.

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2024. (Photo courtesy of the Seattle Seahawks)
O’Neil: The Seahawks will keep Geno Smith

The reasons for the Seahawks quarterback sticking around are simple and obvious.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.