Economy up 5.6 percent in first quarter, most in 2 years

By Jeannine Aversa

Associated Press

WASHINGTON — The economy snapped back from last year’s recession, growing at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the first quarter, the strongest performance in nearly two years.

The latest reading on the first-quarter gross domestic product – which measures the total output of goods and services produced within the United States – showed the economy grew a little less briskly than the 5.8 percent rate estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Even so, the revised January-March performance was remarkable given the economy actually shrank at a 1.3 percent rate in the third quarter of 2001. GDP grew at a below-par 1.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

“The economy is on the mend, but it needs more time to heal,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.

In another Commerce report, new-home sales rose solidly in April, providing support for the recovery.

New-home sales went up 1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 as low mortgage rates and solid housing appreciation motivated buyers. In March, sales fell 3 percent.

Although the economic recovery is clearly chugging ahead, many economists have mixed thoughts on how it will ultimately shape up, with predictions ranging from sluggish to solid, but probably not sizzling.

On Wall Street, stocks slumped. The Dow Jones industrial average was off 74 points and the Nasdaq index was down 31 in morning trading.

President Bush has credited his $1.35 trillion tax cut package enacted last year with helping to pull the economy out of recession. He wants to make sure the recovery stays on firm footing.

So does the Federal Reserve. Citing uncertainties about the vitality of the recovery, the Fed earlier this month decided to leave short-term interest rates unchanged at 40-year lows. Vitner predicts the Fed will continue to hold rates steady through the summer.

Low interest rates should motivate consumers to continue buying – and for businesses to step up investment, which would help the economic recovery. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that the recovery could be less than sizzling because consumers, who kept buying throughout the slump, might not have a lot of pent-up demand coming out of it.

Many economists believe economic growth slowed in the current quarter to between 3 percent and 3.5 percent – still considered a respectable pace.

Another factor that could affect consumer behavior is the job market. The nation’s unemployment rate is at a nearly eight-year high of 6 percent and is expected to rise to around 6.5 percent this summer. That’s because analysts believe companies will be slow to hire back workers until the recovery is assured.

One of the reasons the first-quarter GDP was revised down a bit from the previous estimate is because consumer spending was slightly less brisk. Consumer spending grew at a rate of 3.2 percent, down from 3.5 percent previously reported.

Spending by businesses on new plants and equipment also was weaker, contributing to the lower GDP estimate. Businesses cut this spending at an 8.2 percent rate, deeper than the 5.7 percent decline previously estimated. Capital investment has dropped for five straight quarters, a key behind the economy’s plunge into recession.

Economists said a vital ingredient to a solid and sustained economic recovery is a turnaround in capital spending.

One of the biggest sources of strength in the first quarter came from a slowdown in inventory liquidation by businesses. That added a sizable 3.47 percentage points to the GDP.

Another big boost come from a whopping 18.3 percent growth rate in federal government spending on national defense. That marked the biggest increase since the first quarter of 1967.

Friday’s report also showed the after-tax profits of U.S. corporations edged up 0.9 percent in the first quarter, the first increase since the third quarter of 2000.

The 5.6 percent growth rate in GDP marked the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2000.

Based on the current GDP data, the drop in economic output during the recession was a small 0.3 percent, which would be the mildest recession on record. That record has been held by the 1969-1970 recession, when GDP fell 0.6 percent.

Copyright ©2002 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Olivia Vanni / The Herald 
The Mukilteo Lighthouse. Built in 1906, it’s one of the most iconic landmarks in Snohomish County.
The Mukilteo Lighthouse. Built in 1906, it’s one of the most iconic landmarks in Snohomish County. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Mukilteo mayor vetoes council-approved sales tax

The tax would have helped pay for transportation infrastructure, but was also set to give Mukilteo the highest sales tax rate in the state.

Marysville Mayor Jon Nehring gives the state of the city address at the Marysville Civic Center on Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024, in Marysville, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Marysville council approves interim middle housing law

The council passed the regulations to prevent a state model code from taking effect by default. It expects to approve final rules by October.

x
State audit takes issue with Edmonds COVID grant monitoring

The audit report covered 2023 and is the third since 2020 that found similar issues with COVID-19 recovery grant documentation.

Bothell
Bothell man pleads guilty to sexual abuse of Marysville middle schoolers

The man allegedly sexually assaulted three students in exchange for vapes and edibles in 2022. His sentencing is set for Aug. 29.

Larsen talks proposed Medicaid cuts during Compass Health stop in Everett

Compass Health plans to open its new behavioral health center in August. Nearly all of the nonprofit’s patients rely on Medicaid.

District 2 candidates differ in public safety approach

Incumbent Paula Rhyne is facing challenger Ryan Crowther. The third candidate, Jonathan Shapiro, is no longer seeking the seat.

From left to right, Edmonds City Council Position 3 candidates Joseph Ademofe, Alex Newman and Erika Barnett.
Amid budget crisis, Edmonds City Council candidates talk revenue, affordability

Three newcomers are facing off for Position 3 on the council, currently held by council President Neil Tibbott.

Community members gather for the dedication of the Oso Landslide Memorial following the ten-year remembrance of the slide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
The Daily Herald garners 6 awards from regional journalism competition

The awards recognize the best in journalism from media outlets across Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington.

Everett
Everett approves new fines for non-emergency lifts

The fire department will only issue fines for non-emergency lift assists at licensed care facilities, not for individuals at home calling 911.

Guns for sale at Caso’s Gun-A-Rama in Jersey City, New Jersey, which has been open since 1967. (Photo by Aristide Economopoulos/New Jersey Monitor)
After suing, WA gets carveout from Trump administration plan to return gun conversion devices

The Trump administration has agreed to not distribute devices that turn semi-automatic… Continue reading

The Wild Horse Wind and Solar Facility about 16 miles east of Ellensburg in central Washington is part of Puget Sound Energy’s clean energy portfolio. (Courtesy of Puget Sound Energy)
Megabill’s elimination of tax credits for clean energy projects could cost WA $8.7 billion

Washington households could see electricity costs increase $115 per year by 2029; 21,800 workers could lose their jobs by 2030, analysts say.

Everett mayor candidates focus on affordability, city budget in costly race

As incumbent Cassie Franklin seeks a third term in office, three candidates are looking to unseat her.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.