TEHRAN, Iran — After an exuberant campaign season, voters across this country of 70 million head to the polls today in a fiercely contested presidential election with potentially broad domestic and international repercussions.
Washington and capitals around the world are tensely anticipating the outcome of the vote, which pits incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi and two other challengers. The Islamic Republic and the West are at odds over Iran’s nuclear program and support for militant groups that oppose Israel. Pro-American Arab leaders have decried Iran’s rising ambitions.
The next president, analysts say, will play a key role in formulating Iran’s response to the Obama administration’s offer of comprehensive talks after a 30-year cold war between Tehran and Washington.
“There’s a hope that if Ahmadinejad is not re-elected this might facilitate engagement with Iran, specifically on the nuclear issue,” said Ali Reza Nader, an analyst at the Rand Corp. “Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric and style has an effect on U.S.-Iran engagement. Mousavi is seen as an easier candidate to deal with by certain segments of the (U.S.) foreign-policy establishment.”
For Iranian voters, the election has emerged as a referendum on Ahmadinejad, pitting those who support his populist economic policies and fiery international posture against those angered by his conservative social policies and his perceived damaging of Iran’s relations with the West.
Polling numbers are scarce and unreliable. No independent pollsters operate in Iran. Ahmadinejad supporters say he’ll easily clobber Mousavi, his chief challenger in today’s balloting. Mousavi’s supporters say their polls show Ahmadinejad will lose by a double-digit margin.
Election officials are planning for a record turnout, placing ballot boxes in 130 countries, including Iraq and the United States. Results are supposed to be announced within 24 hours after polls close.
If Ahmadinejad is re-elected, the West will look hard to see whether his government is prepared to tone down its rhetoric and enter into talks over Iran’s nuclear program.
If Mousavi wins, many wonder whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will give him leeway to broker a deal with the West. Khamenei wields ultimate authority over critical matters of state, such as the nuclear program.
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