Predicting weather

Associated Press

SEATTLE – Weather experts hope they soon will be able to do a better job of predicting precipitation.

How much moisture will fall has always been tough to forecast, even with the best methods and when experts know snow and rain is on its way. It’s especially tricky in the wet Northwest, which is prone to flooding.

About 100 scientists and technicians are taking part in a four-week effort to study mountain storms like never before. It started last week with an airborne exhibition over the Cascade Mountains in a P-3 aircraft called “hurricane hunter.”

In the five-hour flight, scientists gathered the most comprehensive data ever on what happens when clouds collide with mountains and moisture falls from the sky, The News Tribune of Tacoma reported Monday.

“This is very practical stuff, not ivory tower research,” said Nick Bond, a research meteorologist at the University of Washington and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “We’re trying to do things that directly help forecast precipitation.”

Bond is one of the participants in the study. He and several colleagues flew along the spine of the Central Oregon Cascades, while a UW research plane also made its way through the same storm.

Teams of researchers in the foothills below released weather balloons that took measurements as they floated up through the clouds. In addition, scientists on the ground pointed radars into the sky, while others in four-wheel-drive vehicles caught snow flakes and examined them on chilled microscope slides before they melted.

“It’s an amazing collection of observational assets never brought together before,” said UW meteorologist Cliff Mass, who is overseeing the project.

By studying how precipitation falls, scientists hope to improve weather and flood forecasts.

“Right now, it’s very hard for us to predict how much rain is going to fall, how much snow is going to fall,” said Bradley Colman, the National Weather Service’s Seattle science officer. “This should help us figure out what we’re doing wrong.”

The P-3 hurricane hunter is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The crew, based in Tampa, Fla., chases tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean all summer. The rest of the year, the plane goes where the weather is worst.

The seats have industrial-strength seat belts and shoulder harnesses, but it can still be a rocky ride, said veteran pilot Capt. Dave Tennesen. A steel pipe runs along the cabin roof, serving as a handrail for passengers to grab when the plane hits turbulence. During Hurricane Hugo several years ago, a life raft broke loose and slammed into the pipe, making an impressive dent.

“We left it there to remind folks what a hurricane can do to you,” Tennesen said.

Meteorologists use computer models for weather forecasts. The models have improved over the last 10 years, but it’s still not easy to predict precipitation amounts, Colman said.

Precipitation in the Northwest typically starts out as snow, released from clouds as they’re forced up and over mountain ranges, he said. The P-3 tracks the entire process, flying a series of 100-mile-long north/south passes as the front approaches, then crosses, the peaks. The air crew calls the grid-like pattern “mowing the pasture.”

Copyright ©2001 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

Customers enter and exit the Costco on Dec. 2, 2022, in Lake Stevens. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Costco stores could be impacted by looming truck driver strike threat

Truck drivers who deliver groceries and produce to Costco warehouses… Continue reading

Two Washington State ferries pass along the route between Mukilteo and Clinton as scuba divers swim near the shore Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Mukilteo, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Ferry system increases ridership by a half million in 2024

Edmonds-Kingston route remains second-busiest route in the system.

Alina Langbehn, 6, center, and Vera A., 6, right, sit on a swing together at Drew Nielsen Neighborhood Park after school on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett council votes to renovate Drew Nielsen Park

Construction on the $345,000 upgrade could start as early as this fall.

Northshore School District bus driver Stewart O’Leary pictured next to his buses shattered drivers side windshield on Friday, Feb. 14, 2025 in Bothell, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
‘Put me in, coach’: Bus driver back at work after struck by metal bar

Stewart O’Leary, a Northshore employee, has received national attention for his composure during a frightening bus trip.

Lynnwood councilor Joshua Binda speaks during a Lynnwood City Council meeting on Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Does the Lynnwood Council VP live in Lynnwood? It’s hard to say.

Josh Binda’s residency has been called into question following an eviction and FEC filings listing an Everett address. He insists he lives in Lynnwood.

Robin Cain with 50 of her marathon medals hanging on a display board she made with her father on Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 in Lake Stevens, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Running a marathon is hard. She ran one in every state.

Robin Cain, of Lake Stevens, is one of only a few thousand people to ever achieve the feat.

People line up to grab food at the Everett Recovery Cafe on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Coffee, meals and compassion are free at the Everett Recovery Cafe

The free, membership-based day center offers free coffee and meals and more importantly, camaraderie and recovery support.

The Everett Wastewater Treatment Plant along the Snohomish River on Thursday, June 16, 2022 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett water, sewer rates could jump 43% by 2028

The rate hikes would pay for improvements to the city’s sewer infrastructure.

The bond funded new track and field at Northshore Middle School on Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024 in Bothell, Washington. (Courtesy of Northshore School District)
Northshore School District bond improvements underway

The $425 million bond is funding new track and field complexes, playgrounds and phase one of two school replacements.

An American Robin picks a berry from a holly tree on Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025 in Edmonds, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Calling all birders for the annual Great Backyard Bird Count

The Audubon Society will hold its 28th annual Great Backyard… Continue reading

A view of one of the potential locations of the new Aquasox stadium on Monday, Feb. 26, 2024 in Everett, Washington. The site sits between Hewitt Avenue, Broadway, Pacific Avenue and the railroad. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Initial prep work for AquaSox stadium to start, with $200k price tag

The temporary agreement allows some surveying and design work as the city negotiates contracts with designers and builders.

Aaron Kennedy / The Herald
The Joann Fabric and Crafts store at 7601 Evergreen Way, Everett, is one of three stores in Snohomish County that will close as part of the retailer’s larger plan to shutter more than half of its stores nationwide.
Joann store closure plan includes Everett, Arlington, Lynnwood locations

The retail giant filed a motion in court to close approximately 500 stores in the U.S.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.