WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice departs for the Middle East today facing one of the sternest challenges of her diplomatic career.
For decades, it has been an unwritten rule of U.S. diplomacy that secretaries of state should not risk their reputations by heading into a Middle East war zone without reasonable assurance that they can emerge with a deal.
In this case, in addition to the fighting in Lebanon, the Bush administration is struggling to meet the tests of two other regional hotspots, Iraq and Iran. While trying to make progress on Lebanon, it can’t afford to look ineffective or to alienate regional allies by giving the impression that Rice is buying time for continued Israeli military operations.
Rice appears to be hoping it will be sufficient to show determination and make small steps toward a deal, analysts say. “I know there are no answers that are easy, nor are there any quick fixes,” she said Friday in announcing the trip.
To Rice’s advantage, there is basic agreement among key allies that the world community needs to assert more control over Lebanon to suppress Hezbollah and strengthen the fragile Lebanese government.
Bush criticized Hezbollah and singled out its patrons, Syria and Iran, in his weekly radio address Saturday. He said Hezbollah had defied the world by maintaining armed units in southern Lebanon and attacking Israel. Rice “will make it clear that resolving the crisis demands confronting the terrorist group that launched the attacks and the nations that support it,” he said.
On Saturday, British Foreign Office Minister Kim Howells, on a visit to Beirut, Lebanon, echoed sentiments heard in some European capitals that Israel has been using disproportionate force.
“The destruction of the infrastructure, the death of so many children and so many people, these have not been surgical strikes,” Howells told reporters. “And it’s very difficult, I think, to understand the kind of military tactics that have been used. If they’re chasing Hezbollah, then go for Hezbollah. You don’t go for the entire Lebanese nation.”
Yet there remains great uncertainty about how the newly organized “Lebanon core group” of allies could assert control over one of the most divided and unruly countries in a chaotic region.
Rice made clear Friday that the Bush administration will not send U.S. troops to Lebanon, thus avoiding a step that many Arabs would find provocative.
Although some European countries have indicated a willingness to provide soldiers, it is far from clear that they and other allies could field and support a force strong enough to deal with Hezbollah. Also unanswered is whether this force would enter Lebanon only after a cease-fire, and whether it would seek to disarm the militant group, as Israel wants.
Israel has made it clear that it wants more time to strike at Hezbollah before considering a cease-fire. In advance of Rice’s arrival, Israeli observers dismissed the likelihood of her visit resulting in a truce.
Rice is not planning to meet leaders of Syria or Hezbollah on this trip. The Syrians, who have strong influence over Hezbollah, have been contacted by many other countries, both European and Arab, and do not need a direct dialogue with the Americans, she said.
Other disagree strongly. Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Carter, said at a dinner sponsored by the New America Foundation last week that if Rice doesn’t meet with leaders the administration does not approve of, her trip would amount to “sitting in front of a mirror, talking to herself.”
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