The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the genetic fortitude of past killer bugs.
President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu.
In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it.
A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ’s genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu.
Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus will do. Experts say the only wise course is to prepare for the worst. But in a world that’s been rattled by the specter of a global pandemic, glimmers of hope were more than welcome Friday.
“It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus, in which case we will have prepared and we won’t need all these preparations,” Obama said, using the flu’s scientific name.
The president said the government was still taking the virus very seriously, adding that even if this round turns out to be mild, the bug could return in a deadlier form during the next flu season.
New York officials said after a week of monitoring the disease that the city’s outbreak gives little sign of spreading beyond a few pockets or getting more dangerous.
All but two of the city’s confirmed cases so far involve people associated with the high school where the local outbreak began and where several students had recently returned from Mexico.
More than 1,000 students, parents and faculty there reported flu symptoms over just a few days last month. But since then, only a handful of new infections have been reported — only eight students since last Sunday.
Almost everyone who became ill before then are either recovering or already well. The school, which was closed this past week, is scheduled to reopen Monday. No new confirmed cases were identified in the city on Friday, and Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the outbreak in New York had so far proved to be “a relatively minor annoyance.”
In Mexico, where swine flu has killed at least 16 people and the confirmed case count has surpassed 300, the health secretary said few of the relatives of 86 suspected swine flu patients had caught the virus. Only four of the 219 relatives surveyed turned up as probable cases.
As recently as Wednesday, Mexican authorities said there were 168 suspected swine flu deaths in the country and almost 2,500 suspected cases. The officials have stopped updating that number and say those totals may have even been inflated.
Mexico shut down all but essential government services and private businesses Friday, the start of a five-day shutdown that includes a holiday weekend. Authorities there will use the break to determine whether emergency measures can be eased.
In the Mexican capital, there were no reports of deaths overnight — the first time that has happened since the emergency was declared a week ago, said Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.
“This isn’t to say we are lowering our guard or we think we no longer have problems,” Ebrard said. “But we’re moving in the right direction.”
The U.S. case count rose to 155 on Friday, based on federal and state counts, although state laboratory operators believe the number is higher because they are not testing all suspected cases.
Worldwide, the total confirmed cases neared 600, although that number is also believed to be much larger. Besides the U.S. and Mexico, the virus has been detected in Canada, New Zealand, China, Israel and eight European nations.
There were still plenty of signs Friday of worldwide concern.
China decided to suspend flights from Mexico to Shanghai because of a case of swine flu confirmed in a flight from Mexico, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
And in Hong Kong, hundreds of hotel guests and workers were quarantined after a tourist from Mexico tested positive for swine flu, Asia’s first confirmed case.
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